Monsoon rains in India are expected to be below normal from June to September 2023.

This is due to the El Nino effect, according to Skymet Weather Services.

The upcoming monsoon is likely to be 94% of the four-month LPA of 868.6 millimetres from June to September.

The long-period average (LPA) of rainfall is the average rainfall recorded over a specific region over a specific interval.

In India, rainfall is considered below normal when it falls between 90% and 95% of the LPA.

Skymet issued a forecast on Jan 4, predicting that the monsoon in India in 2023 will be sub-par.

El Nino and La Nino events typically last nine to twelve months and occur every two to seven years on average.

Because El Nino has pushed trade winds east, the monsoon in India is likely to suffer.

The second half of the monsoon season is expected to be more unusual, the weather forecasters said.

Skymet predicts that rain will be scarce in the northern and central parts of India.