The second wave of deadly coronavirus pandemic is not only proving to be detrimental for the economy but posing serious challenges for people already reeling under its impact.
If you go by the economists of the country’s largest bank-State Bank of India (SBI) then the second wave could peak around mid-May. Every day, the new Covid-19 cases are breaching their previous record with lockdown-like measures already imposed in most states.
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As many as 3,79,257 more people tested positive for Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, taking the cumulative caseload to 1,83,76,524, said the Union health ministry on Thursday morning.
Amid all this gloominess, the report in the business publication Mint quoted SBI report that stated India’s recovery rate that was at 97 percent at the beginning of the second wave, is now at 82.5 percent.
It pointed out at the 14.5 percent reduction in recovery rate has happened over a period of 69 days.
“Based on other countries' experience we believe India might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be at 77.8%," the report added.
As per the estimate of SBI, "given that every 1 percent reduction in recovery rate takes around 4.5 days, it gets translated into around 20 days from now".
The SBI predicts that every 1 percent reduction in recovery rate leads to 1.85 lakhs active cases. The SBI researchers believe that the peak of the second wave would come around mid-May with active cases reaching around 36 lakhs at that point in time, as per their findings.
Apart from this the report also mentioned the pumped-up production capacity and new vaccines being imported, the report estimated that "a total of 1048 million doses can be administered in India by October 21 in which 15 percent of the population can be fully vaccinated and 63 percent can get their first shot"
It went on to observe that other countries showed infections stabilizing after 15 percent of the population receive a second dose.