Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections Exit Poll: Raman's magic worked; BJP all set for fourth successive term

Assembly Election Exit Polls 2018: BJP looks set for a fourth successive term, despite the strong anti-incumbency waves.With 37% estimated vote share and 35 seats, Congress is predicted to trail behind BJP which emerged stronger with 42% votes and 52 seats. The JCC-BSP alliance remains third with 12% votes and only three seats in the assembly.

Background

ABP News Exit Poll will predict which party is more likely to get people's mandate in Chhattisgarh where an incumbent BJP government under Chief Minister Raman Singh was pitched in a neck-to-neck fight with the Congress. While BJP struggles to retain power in the state, Congress is looking forward to returning to power after a gap of 15 years, riding on a "strong anti-incumbency" wave. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) -BSP alliance too is locked in the power-struggle, looking forward to retaining seats in its strong pockets. Elections were held in two phases to elect the Chhattisgarh Assembly on November 12 and 20. The counting of votes will take place on December 11.  In the first phase, 18 constituencies of the southern part of the state, which are Naxal affected areas, went to polls on November 12 with 190 candidates in the fray and as per electoral rolls, there were 31,80,014 voters. Voting for the rest of the 72 assembly constituencies in Chhattisgarh election took place on November 20. The second phase which saw a total of 1079 candidates contesting in the 72 constituencies of the 19 districts in the state with an electorate of 1,54,00, 596. The tenure of the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly comes to an end on January 5, 2019. The state is headed by Raman Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP had won 49 seats in 2013 assembly elections while the Congress party had bagged 39 seats.ABP News Lokniti-CSDS Survey was conducted in the five states where elections were held -  Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram,  to predict the assembly election results.

07/12/2018 20:25:21

Raman Singh leads comfortably in the race of the Chief Ministerial choice; Congress’ Bhupesh Baghel second but way behind.

07/12/2018 19:04:45

The JCC-BSP alliance seems to have damaged the Congress more than the BJP. Nearly one in ten traditional Congress supporters seems to have voted for the alliance.

07/12/2018 18:45:54

BJP is likely to clutch the giant share of the overall seats in the assembly. The BJP is likely to retain 52 seats of the 90 seats, securing yet another term in the state. BJP’s seat share in this election is expected to increase as compared to the previous assembly polls in which it had managed to grab 49 seats.
The Indian National Congress is likely to secure 35 seats which is 4 less than what it secured in the previous assembly elections of 2013.
The JCC-BSP alliance is likely to get 3 seats this time

07/12/2018 18:44:49

BJP is likely to clutch the giant share of the overall seats in the assembly. The BJP is likely to retain 52 seats of the 90 seats, securing yet another term in the state. BJP’s seat share in this election is expected to increase as compared to the previous assembly polls in which it had managed to grab 49 seats.

07/12/2018 18:44:06

Looking at the overall estimate, BJP appears successful in reaching out to voters with 42% of votes in its bag, While Congress is likely to get 37% of votes in the state. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh which had stitched an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), will manage to hold 12% of the votes. The rest of the 9% is likely to go with the other parties.

07/12/2018 18:43:39

Overall Seat Share:
(Total seats: 90)
BJP 52, Congress 35, Others 3

07/12/2018 18:41:45

In Central Chhattisgarh, BJP remains the most preferred party with 45% of vote shares while Congress trails behind with 33% votes.

07/12/2018 18:39:25

South region Seat Projection:
BJP-6, Congress- 6, JCC-BSP - 1

07/12/2018 18:38:56

South Region Vote Percentage: BJP- 43%, Congress-38%; JCC-BSP- 11%

07/12/2018 18:32:22

South Region Vote Percentage: BJP- 43%, Congress-38%; JCC-BSP- 11%

07/12/2018 18:33:02

In the North, Congress seems to be the most preferred party with 42% votes and 18 seats. BJP likely to get 38% votes while JCC-BSP to get 15%. The North includes districts of Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja Jashpur, Raigarh, Korba, Bilaspur, Mungeli and Janjgir-Champa.

07/12/2018 18:36:33

Central Region Seat Projection:
Total Seats: 43;
(BJP-30, Congress-11, JCC-BSP – 2)

07/12/2018 18:36:55

Central Region Vote Percentage: BJP- 45%, Congress-33%; JCC-BSP-10%

07/12/2018 18:38:19

Central Region Vote Percentage: BJP- 45%, Congress-33%; JCC-BSP-10%

07/12/2018 18:29:42

North Region seat share: Congress- 18, BJP-16, JCC-BSP -0

07/12/2018 18:28:53

North Region vote percentage: Congress 42%, BJP 38%; JCC-BSP- 15%

07/12/2018 18:25:22

The first cut of ABP News exit poll for Chhattisgarh Assembly election to be out shortly

07/12/2018 17:46:01

Congress also exuded confidence: Amidst speculation of probable post-poll alliance among political parties, senior Congress leader T S Singh Deo has said there was no need to "look left or right" for any support and his party will form the government in Chhattisgarh on its own.

07/12/2018 17:20:37

BJP says confident of winning: Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh exuded confidence that the BJP will return to power in the state on its own. Singh, who was here to attend the inaugural ceremony of Maharana Pratap Shiksha Parishad, said there was no chance of alliance with other parties as the BJP will make full majority.

07/12/2018 17:19:26

EVM malfunctioning issue: The Congress on Thursday filed a writ petition in the Chhattisgarh High Court, seeking directions to the Election Commission (EC) for maintaining strict security at strongrooms housing electronic voting machines (EVMs) which contain the votes cast in the last month's assembly polls.

In the petition, the main opposition party in the state has also demanded counting of VVPAT paper slips used in EVMs in 50 per cent of booths in all the constituencies.

07/12/2018 17:12:00

The Bharatiya Janata party under Chief Minister Raman Singh is faced with strong anti-incumbency sentiments in the state. Though the party is banking upon the welfare schemes launched during the tenure to bail it out in the political slugfest.

07/12/2018 16:53:45

The first cut of the Chhattisgarh Assembly Election Exit Poll will be out at 6:30 pm

07/12/2018 16:50:27

ABP News Exit Poll charted on the basis of Lokniti-CSDS survey that encompassed 8840 people from Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, will be out shortly.