Jammu Kashmir Exit Polls Highlights: Predictions Show Congress-NC To Attain Majority In J&K With 40-48 Seats
Jammu & Kashmir Exit Poll LIVE Updates: Catch all the action, analyses, debates, and results of all major exit polls by the nation's biggest pollsters on ABP Live.
On exit polls, Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) candidate from the Doda East constituency Abdul Majeed Wani said: "These are just exit polls and not exact polls. The results will be out on the Oct 8. But, I feel that none of the parties in J&K will receive a majority...DPAP will play a major role in government formation..."
The Exit Polls on Saturday gave a mixed result for Jammu and Kashmir, which has gone to polling for the first time in a decade. The post-poll predictions showed the Congress-NC alliance getting a lead in the Union Territory, with the BJP trailing behind the alliance with a wide margin.
Read story here: Will Jammu And Kashmir Get Its First BJP CM On October 8? Here's What Exit Polls Say
After the exit polls were announced, National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah said: "I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp Etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass."
The Gulistan exit poll has predicted 31-36 seats for the Congress-NC and 28-30 seats for the BJP. It also indicates independent candidates may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.
After the exit polls, J&K Congress president Tair Hameed Karra stated the Congress-NC alliance is in a comfortable position to form the next government in the Union territory.
"This election was primarily to keep the BJP out of the power corridors, restoration of statehood along with land and job guarantees. I am seeing the (Congress-NC) alliance in a comfortable position to form the government," Karra said.
On Exit polls, Former Dy CM of J&K & BJP leader Kavinder Gupta said: "It is only in the Exit polls that Congress-NC has got these seats, but BJP will emerge as the biggest party once the correct results are out. We are confident of getting more than 35 seats in Jammu province and the remaining from Kashmir. BJP will be in a better condition in Kashmir...Talks are going on with like-minded parties..."
On exit poll predictions for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, BJP’s in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir Tarun Chugh said: "These are just the exit polls. BJP will form majority governments at both the places. BJP will receive the blessings of poor, youth, women and farmers. Double-engine government is going to be formed in both the states."
On Assembly election results, J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina says, "I am confident that BJP will emerge as the single largest party in Jammu & Kashmir on 8th October. J&K's next government will be of BJP."
On Assembly election results, J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina says, "I am confident that BJP will emerge as the single largest party in Jammu & Kashmir on 8th October. J&K's next government will be of BJP."
Here's CVoter's social group-wise vote share in Kashmir Valley.
| Party | Kashmiri Pandits (%) | Shia (%) | Sunni (%) | Total Muslims (%) |
| Congress-NC | 29 | 37 | 45 | 41 |
| BJP | 34 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| PDP | 12 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| Others | 25 | 46 | 35 | 39 |
Here's CVoter's social group-wise vote share in Kashmir Valley.
| Party | Kashmiri Pandits (%) | Shia (%) | Sunni (%) | Total Muslims (%) |
| Congress-NC | 29 | 37 | 45 | 41 |
| BJP | 34 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| PDP | 12 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| Others | 25 | 46 | 35 | 39 |
| Source | Congress-NC | BJP | PDP | Others |
| CVoter | 40-48 | 27-32 | 6-12 | 6-11 |
| Peoples Pulse | 46-50 | 23-27 | 7-11 | 4-6 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 35-40 | 20-25 | 4-7 | 12-16 |
| Matrize (Republic Bharat) | 31-36 | 28-30 | 5-7 | 8-16 |
| Chanakya (News-24) | 46-50 | 23-27 | 7-11 | 4-6 |
Early indicators by News 24-Chanakya predict a majority for Congress-NC in Jammu and Kashmir.
Congress-NC: 46-50
BJP: 23-27
PDP: 7-11
Others: 4-6
| Party | Jammu Region | Kashmir Region |
| Congress-NC | 37% | 41% |
| BJP | 41% | 3% |
| PDP | 4% | 17% |
| Others | 18% | 39% |
According to Aaj Tak's CVoter survey, the Congress-NC alliance will attain majority in Jammu and Kashmir.
Congress-NC: 40-48
BJP: 27-32
PDP: 6-12
Others: 6-11
People's pulse exit poll predicts majority for Congress-NC.
BJP: 23 -27
Congress-NC: 46-50
PDP: 7 -11
Others: 4-6
Matrize has released first exit poll results for J&K:
BJP - 25
Congress - 12
NC - 15
PDP - 28
Others - 7
According to the exit polls by People's Pulse, the JKNC is leading in Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections.
JKNC - 33-35
BJP - 23-27
INC - 13-15
PDP - 7-11
Others - 4-5
According to Dainik Bhaskar exit polls, Congress-NC alliance is headed towards securing a majority in Jammu and Kashmir as the predictions for 46/90 seats show the alliance leading.
Congress-NC: 35-40
BJP: 20-25
PDP: 4-7
Others: 12-18
According to a survey by CVoter, Omar Abdullah is the next preferred CM of Jammu and Kashmir receiving (39%), followed by BJP's Ravinder Raina (12%), and PDP's Mehboba Mufti (9%).
According to the CVoter exit polls for Jammu region, the BJP is projected to secure 41 percent of the votes. Congress-NC alliance will likely secure 37 percent, PDP 4 percent and others 18 percent of the votes.
According to CVoter exit poll for the Jammu region, BJP will secure 27-31 seats, while the NC-Congress alliance will secure 11-15 seats. The PDP is likely to secure 0-2 seats and others 0-1.
These predictions are for 43/90 seats.
On being asked about his expectations from the exit polls, NC chief Farooq Abdullah said that he doesn't believe in them.
"The votes are in the boxes. We will know on October 8 what exactly is in and out. Who has got the majority and who has not, so, let us wait till October 8. I do not believe in exit polls. I have never believed in them and I will never," he said.
Jammu and Kashmir's Nowshera constituency is witnessing a high-stake battle between BJP J-K unit president Ravinder Raina and NC-Congress alliance candidate Surinder Choudhary. Ravinder Raina had won the seat in 2014 assembly elections. ABP News exit polls will be out soon, revealing the fate of the BJP leader and whether he will claim the Nowshera seat again after 10 years.
The last time assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir was in 2014. Although polls were supposed to be held in 2019, they couldn't be held due to various reasons. These included the dissolution of the legislative body of the erstwhile state in 2018 and a delimitation exercise that was completed in 2022.
In 2024, the Supreme Court finally directed the Centre to conduct elections in the Union Territory by September 30.
Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election recorded an overall voter turnout of around 63.88 percent, which was higher than the 57.89 percent recorded in the Lok Sabha polls.
As voting has concluded for the Haryana Assembly, all eyes are now set on the exit polls for Jammu Kashmir where it is a high stake battle between BJP, PDP, and Congress-NC.
Candidates and supporters from across parties have been camping outside the EVM strong rooms in this border district even as authorities have made robust arrangements. The counting of votes of 90 assembly segments across Jammu and Kashmir will take place on October 8.
The exit polls for the Jammu Kashmir assembly polls will be out shortly. Meanwhile, here's a look back at the Lok Sabha election results. The J&K general elections were held for five seats. Out of these, two were bagged by JKNC, two by BJP, and one by Others.
The key parties that contested the Jammu Kashmir elections include the National Conference (NC) and the Congress alliance, The People's Democratic Party (PDP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and other major contenders who contested independently.
Omar Abdullah (INDIA) versus Bashir Ahmed Mir (PDP) in Ganderbal.
Omar Abdullah (INDIA) versus Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP) in Budgam.
Ravinder Raina (BJP) versus Surinder Chowdhary (NC) versus Haw Nawaz (PDP) in Nowshera.
Devinder Singh Raina (BJP) versus Balbir Singh (Congress)/Joginder Singh (NC) in Nagrota.
Mohammad Khalil Bandh (NC) versus Waheed Para (PDP) in Pulwama.
National Conference (NC) vice-president Omar Abdullah on Friday claimed that the BJP had asked the chief secretary to change the "transaction of business rules". His remark came after the Home Ministry directed the LG to nominate five MLAs ahead of the government formation in the J&K.
Abdullah also accused the Centre of plotting to "disempower" the incoming J&K government and asked bureaucrats to resist the pressure.
"The BJP has clearly accepted defeat in J&K. Why else would the Chief secretary be assigned the duty to change transaction of business rules of the government to curtail the powers of the Chief minister / elected government and assign the same to the LG? This information has come to me from within the Secretariat. Officers would be well advised to resist any pressure to further disempower the incoming elected government," he said in a post on X.
People's Democratic Party (PDP) leader Iltija Mufti said that the incoming government in Jammu and Kashmir will be a "toothless tiger". She also claimed its chief minister will be a "rubber stamp" and a "glorified mayor" of a "municipality."
In a post on X, Iltija Mufti said: "With the LG 'nominating' five MLAs and the chief secretary changing transaction of business rules, it's clear that the incoming government will be a toothless tiger."
Jammu Kashmir Assembly elections were held in three phases on September 18, 25, and October 1. The result will be declared on October 8.
The Jammu Kashmir exit poll predictions will be out shortly after today's Haryana elections.
National Conference (NC) president Farooq Abdullah said his party would not enter into a post-poll alliance with the BJP to form a government in Jammu and Kashmir. "We cannot go with the BJP. The vote which we have got here is the vote against the BJP. The difficulties they put the Muslims in, bulldozed their shops, houses, mosques, and schools, do you think we will go with them?" Abdullah told PTI.
"I think our people will not vote for the BJP. If they (BJP) think they will form the government, then they live in cuckoo's world," the National Conference (NC) chief added.
Background
Jammu & Kashmir Exit Poll 2024 LIVE Updates: Please follow this space to catch all the action, analyses, debates, and results of all major exit polls by the nation's biggest pollsters on ABP Live.
The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections was held in three phases. It was the first crucial election in the Union Territory since the abrogation of Article 370. The voting process concluded on October 1 in a "peaceful and celebratory atmosphere," with the final phase covering 40 constituencies.
Over 39.18 lakh voters were eligible to vote in the third phase to decide the fate of 415 candidates, including two former deputy chief ministers Tara Chand and Muzaffar Beig. The counting of votes will be held on October 8.
The Election Commission of India had issued the polling schedule on August 16. Voting for 24 constituencies was held on September 18, the second phase for 26 constituencies took place on September 25, and the final phase for 40 constituencies was held on October 1.
The poll percentage in the first phase was 61.38%, 57.31% in the second phase, and a tentative 68.72% in the third phase. The overall poll percentage stands at 63.45%.
Elections Commission data reveals that in the Kashmir region, Kupwara recorded a poll percentage of 65.81%, Baramulla 59.84%, Bandipora 67.57%, Ganderbal 62.83%, Srinagar 30.08%, Budgam 63.28%, Pulwama 46.99%, Shopian 57.01%, Kulgam 63.14%, and Anantnag 57.90%. In the Jammu region, Kishtwar recorded 80.20%, Doda 71.32%, Ramban 70.57%, Reasi 74.68%, Udhampur 75.87%, Kathua 72.23%, Samba 75.22%, Jammu 70.25%, Rajouri 71.13%, and Poonch 74.37%.
A major highlight of the J&K assembly polls was the participation of West Pakistani refugees, the Valmiki Samaj, and the Gorkha community, who gained voting rights in assembly, urban local bodies, and panchayat elections for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370.
The key candidates to watch out for in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly ection include NC leader Omar Abdullah (Ganderbal), PDP's Iltija Mufti (Srigujwara-Bijbehara), BJP J&K president Ravinder Raina (Nowshera), PDP's Waheed Para (Pulwama), and BJP's Devender Singh Rana (Nagrota), among others.
The early predictions for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections will be released alongside the results of the Haryana polls, where voters will decide the fate of more than 1031 candidates on October 5.
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