Poll Of Polls 2024 Highlights: Can INDIA Triumph Over BJP-Led NDA In Maharashtra, Jharkhand? Exit Poll Predictions Out
Maharashtra & Jharkhand Election Poll Of Polls Highlights: Catch all the action, analyses, debates, and results of all major exit polls by the nation's biggest pollsters on ABP Live.
BJP candidate from Saraikela assembly constituency & former CM, Champai Soren tells ANI, "Exit polls are doing its job. We have gone to every Assembly constituency...corruption is at its peak, unemployed people are disappointed, students are disappointed so the change is ensured"
On exit poll predictions, Maharashtra Minister and NCP candidate from Yeola, Chhagan Bhujbal told ANI,"...In the last six months, the Mahayuti government brought a lot of schemes and implemented them...The fake narrative which was being spread by them was busted. A 100% Mahayuti government will be formed. in Maharashtra..."
On exit poll predictions on Maharashtra elections, State Minister Deepak Kesarkar told ANI, "My prediction is that we will cross 160 (seats) and 10-15 independents may join us...CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis along with Ajit dada took a lot of effort to see that we could win. The kind of welfare measures we have approved made a great impact. Ajit dada went to all regions of Maharashtra...."
On the exit poll predictions for Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Anand Dubey tells ANI, "The assembly elections in Maharashtra have concluded...We do not want to question the exit polls... We leave it to the public to decide how much to believe the exit polls or not, but one thing has been decided in Maharashtra that Maha Vikas Aghadi government is going to be formed with a full majority in Maharashtra ..."
Several exit polls on Wednesday gave a clear edge to the BJP-led alliances in Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly polls while some put the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition ahead in the western state.
Axis MyIndia was the only one to predict victory for the Congress-JMM alliance in Jharkhand with 53 seats out of 81 as against only 25 for BJP-led NDA and three seats for others.
Exit polls were out soon after the close of polling in Maharashtra and the second phase of voting in Jharkhand, predicting victory of the BJP-led Mahayuti government in Maharashtra and the NDA in Jharkhand.
In the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, 145 is the majority mark, while it is 41 in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly. The BJP-Shiv-Sena-NCP alliance is in power in Maharashtra while JMM-Congress is ruling in Jharkhand.
Counting of votes would take place on November 23 for the single-phase Maharashtra election held on Wednesday and the two-phased voting in Jharkhand on November 13 and 20.
While the Matrize exit poll conducted in a tie-up with several news organisations predicted 150-170 seats for the BJP and allies in Maharashtra with a 48 per cent vote share, it gave the Congress and other allies only 110-130 seats with a vote share of 42 per cent. The poll gave others 8 to 10 seats, with a vote share of 10 per cent.
In Jharkhand, the Matrize Exit poll predicted 42-47 seats for NDA and 25-30 seats for the INDIA bloc and gave 0-4 seats to others.
The exit poll conducted by People's Pulse gave NDA's Mahayuti a whopping 175-195 seats while giving only 85-112 seats to MVA and 7-12 to others in Maharashtra.
In Jharkhand, People's Pulse predicted 44-53 seats for NDA and 25-37 seats for INDIA Bloc while giving 5-9 seats to others.
Axis MyIndia has predicted a 45 per cent vote share for the INDIA bloc and 37 per cent for the NDA.
Another exit poll by P-MARQ in Maharashtra gave the NDA a total of 137-157 seats and INDIA Bloc's MVA 126-146 seats while giving 2-8 seats to others.
On the other hand, the poll conducted by Electoral Edge predicted MVA to win 150 seats while giving 121 seats to BJP-led Mahayuti and 20 seats to others in Maharashtra.
Exit polls by Poll Diary predicted the NDA to win in 122-186 seats and the MVA 69-121 while forecasting 12-29 seats for others in Maharashtra.
Chanakya Strategies, another pollster, predicted 152-160 seats for Mahayuti and 130-138 seats for MVA while giving 6-8 seats for others in Maharashtra.
Lokshahi Rudra has predicted a close fight between Mahayuti and MVA in Maharashtra and gave them 128-142 seats and 125-140 respectively. It gave others 18-23 seats.
The exit poll by Lokpoll gave Mahayuti 115-128 seats, with 37-40 per cent vote share, and predicted victory for MVA in 151-162 seats, giving them 43-46 per cent vote share. It gave others 5-14 seats with a vote share of 16-19 per cent.
Some exit polls have also predicted the BJP's victory in 5-7 seats out of bypolls held in nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh.
A survey conducted by Delhi University's Centre for Global Studies (CGS) has predicted electoral victories for the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra and the NDA in Jharkhand.
The Election Commission has criticised the exit polls on the manner in which they have been conducted and in several past elections, they have been proved way off the mark. (PTI)
Shiv Sena candidate from Mumbadevi assembly seat Shaina NC tells ANI, "Exit polls are exit polls, not 'exact' polls. The Lok Sabha and the Haryana Assembly elections are the example of it. Mayahuti will return..."
Here is a poll of polls listing the NDA vs INDIA predictions for the Jharkhand election 2024:
| Agencies | NDA (BJP+) | INDIA (JMM+) | Others |
Axis My India | 25 | 53 | 3 |
Matrize | 42-47 | 25-30 | 1-4 |
People Pulse | 44-53 | 25-37 | 5-9 |
Times Now JVC | 40-44 | 30-40 | 1-1 |
Poll Diary | 44-53 | 24-37 | 6-9 |
CHANAKYA STRATEGIES | 45-50 | 35-38 | 03-05 |
Dainik Bhaskar | 37-40 | 36-39 | 0-2 |
P-MARQ | 31-40 | 37-47 | 1-6 |
On Jharkhand Election 2024 exit polls, Union Minister and BJP's Jharkhand election-incharge, Shivraj Singh Chouhan told ANI, "Who can be a bigger surveyor in Jharkhand than us? We have been in Jharkhand for the last 3 months. We have seen how people wished for change. I am sure that the people have voted for BJP-NDA. We are going to form the government with a huge mandate..."
As exit polls for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections spark discussions, political leaders from opposing camps have offered contrasting views on the predictions and their implications.
Atul Londhe, Chief Spokesperson of the Maharashtra Congress, dismissed the reliability of exit polls, speaking to ANI, "Exit polls have lost their credibility. We are not taking part in the exit polls. We trust only exact polls. Maha Vikas Aghadi will get comfortable to form govt." Londhe's remarks reflect confidence in the alliance's prospects despite scepticism towards the predictive surveys.
Meanwhile, BJP leader RP Singh expressed optimism about the outcome for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in both states. He said, "In both the states, BJP-NDA will get blessings of the people. Maharashtra should have seen a higher polling percentage. Hope the final voter turnout will be above 70% each for the two states."
The Jharkhand exit poll results by Axis My India reveal a detailed breakdown of vote shares among different alliances, categorised by gender. The overall vote share percentages are as follows: the NDA alliance is predicted to secure 37%, the INDIA alliance 45%, JLK 8%, and Others accounted for 10%.
When examining the gender-wise distribution, the NDA alliance is projected to get 39% of the male vote and 35% of the female vote. The INDIA alliance may see 43% of males and 47% of females casting their votes in its favor. As for JLK, 8% of male and female voters may contribute to its vote share each. Similarly, the Others category may get an equal vote share from both genders, with 10% each.
The Times Now-JVC exit poll for Jharkhand predicts a tight contest, with the BJP-led NDA alliance expected to secure between 40 and 44 seats. The JMM-led INDIA alliance is projected to win 30 to 40 seats, while other parties and independents are likely to secure 0-1 seat.
With the majority mark at 41, the projections indicate that the NDA is well-positioned to form the next government in the state.
The Axis My India exit poll for Jharkhand gives the INDIA bloc, the ruling JMM and Congress, a lead in 53 seats while the BJP-led NDA is projected to win in 25 seats. Others are predicted to win three seats.
According to ELECTORAL EDGE, the MVA is projected to secure 150 seats, while the Mahayuti alliance is estimated to win 118 seats, leaving 20 seats for other parties.
Another exit poll by SAS Hyderabad indicates a slightly broader range, predicting 147-155 seats for the MVA, 127-135 seats for Mahayuti, and 10-13 seats for others.
The Axis My India exit poll for Jharkhand shares projections across several regions:
Santhal Pargana Region
In the 18-seat Santhal Pargana region, the INDIA bloc is expected to secure 15 seats, leaving only 3 seats for the NDA.
South Chotanagpur
Out of the 15 seats in South Chotanagpur, the INDIA bloc is predicted to win 12 seats, while the NDA is projected to gain 3 seats.
Kolhan
The INDIA bloc is forecast to secure 9 of the 14 seats in Kolhan, with the NDA trailing with 5 seats.
North Chotanagpur
In North Chotanagpur, which has 25 seats, the INDIA bloc is predicted to narrowly lead with 12 seats, while the NDA is projected to win 11 seats.
Kolhan
In the Jharkhand exit poll, the NDA is projected to secure 5 seats with a 35% vote share, while the INDIA alliance may win 9 seats with a 49% vote share. The Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM) did not win any seats, garnering only 7% of the vote share. Other parties, including BSP, LAP, NCP, SP, ASP, AIFB, CPIM, CPI, AIMIM, Jharkhand Party, and Independents, also did not win any seats, collectively receiving 9% of the vote share. The NDA comprises BJP, AJSUP, JD(U), and LJP(RV), while the INDIA alliance includes CONG, JMM, RJD, and CPI(ML)L.
Times Now JVC's Exit Poll for Jharkhand Assembly Elections predicts 40-44 seats for NDA, 30-40 for INDIA, and 1-1 for others.
Here is a poll of polls analysing the Mahayuti vs MVA predictions for the Maharashtra election 2024:
| Agencies | Mahayuti (BP+) | MVA (Congress+) | Others |
| MATRIZE | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 |
| CHANAKYA STRATEGIES | 152-160 | 130-138 | 6-8 |
| POLL DIARY | 122-186 | 69-121 | 12-29 |
| PMARQ | 137-157 | 126-146 | 2-8 |
| Poll Of Polls | 152 | 126 | 10 |
| ELECTORAL EDGE | 118 | 150 | 20 |
| SAS Hyderabad | 127-135 | 147-155 | 10-13 |
CHANAKYA exit poll predicts a BJP government in Jharkhand. BJP+ is projected to secure 45-50 seats, Congress is predicted to win 35 to 38 seats, while others may win 3 to 5 seats.
Projected Seat-sharing in Maharashtra election, as per MATRIZE exit poll.
| Alliance/Party | Seat Range |
| Mahayuti | 150-170 |
| BJP | 89-101 |
| Shiv Sena | 37-45 |
| NCP | 17-26 |
| Alliance/Party | Seat Range |
| MVA | 110-130 |
| Congress | 39-47 |
| Shiv Sena UBT | 21-29 |
| NCP SP | 35-43 |
CHANAKYA exit poll predicts a BJP government in Maharashtra. BJP+ is projected to secure 47% vote share and 152-160 seats, Congress is predicted to win 130 to 138 seats, while others may win 6 to 8 seats. According to CHANAKYA, Congress+ will win 42% vote share and others can secure a 11% share.
MATRIZE exit poll predicts a BJP government in Jharkhand. BJP+ is projected to secure a 45% vote share and 42-47 seats, Congress is predicted to win 25 to 30 seats, while others may win 1 to 4 seats. According to MATRIZE, Congress+ will win 38% vote share and others can secure 17% share.
MATRIZE exit poll predicts a BJP government in Maharashtra. BJP+ is projected to secure 48% vote share and 150-170 seats, Congress is predicted to win 110 to 130 seats, while others may win 8 to 10 seats. According to MATRIZE, Congress+ will win 42% vote share and others can secure 10% share.
The 2019 Jharkhand Assembly elections saw voting take place on 30 November, with results declared on 20 December. The Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance emerged victorious in the polls. The JMM secured 30 seats, while the BJP won 25, and the Congress bagged 16 seats.
Exit polls prior to the results had varied predictions for the state. The India Today-Axis My India poll projected a clear win for the JMM-Congress alliance with 43 seats, while estimating 27 seats for the BJP. On the other hand, the ABP-C Voter exit poll suggested a hung assembly, predicting 35 seats for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and 32 for the BJP.
The Times Now exit poll offered the highest projection for the UPA, estimating 44 seats for the alliance and 28 for the BJP. While there were variations, most exit polls indicated an edge for the UPA, a forecast that came true with the eventual election results favouring the Congress-JMM coalition.
In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 105 seats, emerging as the single largest party. The Shiv Sena won 56 seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) bagged 54 seats, and the Congress managed 44 seats. Notably, during this election, the Shiv Sena and the NCP were undivided, unlike their subsequent split into different factions.
Exit poll predictions from leading agencies had offered varied projections before the results were announced. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll forecasted a strong performance for the NDA (BJP-Shiv Sena alliance), estimating 166–194 seats, while predicting 72–90 seats for the UPA (Congress-NCP alliance).
The News18-IPSOS exit poll had projected a massive majority for the NDA, estimating 243 seats, with only 41 seats for the UPA. Similarly, Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted 216–230 seats for the NDA and 52–59 seats for the UPA.
Other agencies offered comparable predictions. Times Now estimated 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA, while the ABP-C Voter survey suggested 204 seats for the NDA and 69 seats for the UPA.
In the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly elections, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance achieved a decisive victory, securing 47 seats in the 81-member Assembly. The alliance comfortably crossed the majority mark of 41 seats, marking a pivotal shift in the state’s political landscape.
The JMM emerged as the largest party, winning 30 seats, followed by the Congress with 16 and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 1 seat. This triumph paved the way for Hemant Soren of the JMM to continue as Chief Minister, cementing the alliance’s dominance in the state.
As the focus turns to the 2024 Assembly elections, exit polls are anticipated to reveal whether the JMM-led alliance can retain its stronghold or if shifts in voter sentiment have redefined the political dynamics in Jharkhand.
As Maharashtra prepares for the 2024 Assembly election results, a look back at the 2019 outcome reveals a fractured mandate that significantly altered the state’s political landscape.
The 2019 elections resulted in a hung Assembly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party, winning 105 seats with a 25.75% vote share. The Shiv Sena secured 56 seats, garnering 16.41% of the votes, while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress won 54 and 44 seats, respectively, with vote shares of 16.71% and 15.87%. Smaller parties and Independents together claimed 29 seats, reflecting the state’s diverse political terrain.
The fractured verdict led to a dramatic political realignment. The Shiv Sena severed ties with its long-time ally, the BJP, and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in alliance with the NCP and Congress. This development reshaped Maharashtra's political dynamics, setting the stage for new equations ahead of the 2024 elections.
Exit polls and opinion polls are essential tools in understanding voter behaviour and election trends, but they differ significantly in timing and purpose.
Exit Polls are conducted immediately after voters have cast their ballots, typically outside polling stations. These surveys ask voters which party or candidate they supported, aiming to provide an early prediction of election results before official counting begins. While exit polls offer real-time insights, they may be subject to a margin of error due to factors such as sample size and the variability of voter behaviour.
Opinion Polls, on the other hand, are conducted well before an election, often weeks or months in advance. They survey a random sample of people to gauge public opinion on political issues, party preferences, or candidate popularity. Unlike exit polls, opinion polls reflect trends at the time of the survey and do not indicate actual voting behaviour. Instead, they aim to predict future outcomes based on current public sentiment.
Both tools serve as valuable indicators, but their differing methodologies and timing mean they offer distinct perspectives on the electoral process.
Till 5 pm, Jharkhand (Phase-2) and Maharashtra recorded 67.59% and 58.22% voter turnout respectively, as per the Election Commission of India.
Voting across all 288 constituencies in Maharashtra polls began at 7 am and continued until 6 pm. Over 9.7 crore voters decide the fate of 4,136 candidates.
In Maharashtra, the main contest is between Mahayuti and Maha Vikash Aghadi. In Jharkhand, the ruling JMM-Congress alliance, the I.N.D.I.A bloc, is facing the BJP.
Background
Maharashtra & Jharkhand Election Poll Of Polls Highlights: The 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections will seal the fate of 4,136 candidates and 81 assembly constituencies in Jharkhand will decide the fate of 528 candidates. The results of both states will be declared on November 23, 2024. Prior to the results, the voting patterns and impact of the parties' campaigns will be analysed during the Maharashtra & Jharkhand Election Exit Polls.
Maharashtra Assembly Polls
In Maharashtra, the main contest is between Mahayuti and Maha Vikash Aghadi. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is seeking to retain power, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) vying to make a strong comeback. Voting across all 288 constituencies in the state began at 7 am and will continue until 6 pm. Over 9.7 crore voters are likely to decide the fate of 4,136 candidates.
In the Mahayuti alliance, the BJP is contesting from 149 seats, Shiv Sena is contesting from 81, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP from 59 seats. Whereas, the MVA alliance consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar-led NCP have fielded 101, 95, and 86 candidates, respectively. Smaller parties, including the BSP and AIMIM, have also joined the fights in the state, with BSP fielding a total of 237 candidates and AIMIM 17.
Prominent faces from both sides of the alliance participated in the election rally. Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, were rallying across the state. During the rally, the Mahayuti promoted its welfare schemes like Majhi Ladki Bahin, opposition parties criticised the BJP’s slogans, accusing them of religious polarisation. However, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar distanced himself from the slogans, while adding to the political drama, the MVA highlighted caste-based census, social justice, and constitutional protection.
Jharkhand Assembly Polls
The ruling JMM alliance, aligned with the I.N.D.I.A bloc is focusing on its welfare schemes to retain power, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) aims to unseat it.
According to officials, 1.23 crore voters, including 60.79 lakh women and 147 third-gender electors, were eligible to vote on Wednesday.
A total of 528 candidates are contesting in the second phase of the elections, including Chief Minister and JMM leader Hemant Soren, his wife Kalpana Soren, and BJP’s Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri.
Exit Polls
Exit polls by various agencies will provide predictions on the winners and expected margins for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections shortly after voting concludes.
The exit poll results will be streamed live on YouTube and news channels, with some conducted in collaboration with media outlets and others released independently. Forecasts are also expected from prominent pollsters like People's Pulse, Axis My India, C Voter, and Matrize.
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