ABP CVoter Survey HIGHLIGHTS: Will BJP Retain UP? Close Contest In Punjab, U'khand, Manipur. Know The Public Mood In Goa
Assembly Election 2022 ABP CVoter Survey: The survey highlights several key points related to the states and what voters think of various political parties and their performances ahead of polls.
UP Election 2022: According to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, in terms of most preferred chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, incumbent chief minister Yogi Adityanath leads the pack with 43% of the voters preferring him while Akhilesh Yadav gets the support of 34% of the voters. Former chief minister Mayawati trails way behind with 14% while Priyanka Gandhi manages a little more than 3%.
UP Election 2022: Under the leadership of UP CM Yogi Adityanath, BJP looks safe when it comes to attaining a majority in the 403-member legislative assembly. ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll projects that BJP will be able to secure 223-235 seats. SP will be able to win 145-157 assembly seats, a big improvement from its 2017 outing.
Mayawati-led BSP seems to be headed to lose ground, as per the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll projections. BSP is predicted to win 8-16 seats only. Congress tally is likely to stay under ten.
UP Election 2022: As per the latest Vote Share projection by ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, the BJP has elevated itself from the November and December projections and appears to be bagging the highest vote share at 41.5%.
Akhilesh Yadav-led SP and its allies are likely to take away 33.3% of the vote share in UP Vidhan Sabha Polls 2022.
BSP's latest vote share projection in the upcoming 2022 UP polls shows a further decline, while Priyanka Gandhi's aggressive campaign for Congress is also not creating flutters as the party's vote share remains more or less the same in the latest projection.
UP Election 2022: Contest between BJP+ and SP+ in Western UP with the ruling party likely to remain ahead.
UP Election 2022: BJP+ ahead in Purvanchal but SP+ makes significant gains, BSP & Congress lag behind.
UP Election 2022: BJP with highest seats in Awadh but SP tough contender, BSP loses further ground
UP Election 2022: BJP likely to be victorious in the Bundelkhand region, SP makes its presence felt.
Manipur Election 2022: According to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, BJP and Congress seem to be in a close contest for the upcoming elections and Manipur can witness a hung assembly this time.
The ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll reveals the projected range of seats for BJP is 23-27, while Congress can get 22-26 seats, giving the ruling party a tough fight.
While no party appears to have a clear majority, the BJP has been close to the magic number in the previous surveys. From the trend observed in the latest survey, it seems the BJP’s edge over the INC has withered. Naga ethnic party NPF is expected to mop up 2-6 seats and 'others' could tag along with the party that will form power.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 35.5 per cent votes, a decrease of 0.8 per cent as compared to 2017, while the Congress will also witness a decline in its vote share from 35.1 per cent in 2017 to 32.6 per cent in 2022 assembly elections.
Goa Election 2022: In the latest ABP News Cvoter Opinion poll for Goa, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading the way and looking to gain the most seats in the coastal state.
The BJP is projected to win 19 to 23 seats, the Congres could get 4-8 seats, while the AAP is surprisingly ahead on 5 to 9 seats — more than what the Congress might get. Local party MGP could also win 2 to 6 seats.
Goa Election 2022: According to ABP News-CVoter Survey, the BJP is projected to secure the maximum vote share of 32% while the AAP is projected to garner 22.5% shoots while the Congress comes a third with 19.8% of projected votes.
Goa will witness one of the fierce electoral battles with at least eight national and regional parties in the fray for the upcoming election. It is one state where the others are projected to win 18.1% of the votes.
ABP CVoter Survey LIVE: Harish Rawat emerges as the most-favoured CM face in Uttarakhand, speaks to ABP News about survey results.
Uttarakhand Election 2022: In the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, the most interesting aspect of elections is the choice of who is the preferred chief minister. Veteran leader and former chief minister Harish Rawat of the Congress with 37% backing him is miles ahead of the incumbent chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami who gets the support of approx. 29%of the voters. The numbers for Rawat have grown continuously since late 2021 from 30% as his starting point. It is rare for an incumbent chief minister to trail so far behind an opposition leader, but given the rapid change of 3 CMs within a year by the BJP this is hardly surprising.
Uttarakhand Election 2022: According to ABP News-CVoter Survey, a neck-and-neck competition is likely to be witnessed between BJP and Congress. The ruling Bharatiya Janta Party is likely to have 31 to 37 seats in a 70 member state assembly while the Congress is also expected to gain 31 to 36 seats.
It is tough to determine which party is likely to get a clear majority by crossing a 35 seat -mark. Also, the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the fray as the other challenger also makes the poll scene different this time for both Congress and the BJP. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party is likely to bag 2-4 seats.
Uttarakhand Election 2022: According to ABP News-CVoter Survey, the BJP is likely to see a decline with the party getting 38.6% as compared to 46.5% in 2017 assembly polls when the party came to power. Meanwhile, Congress can be seen gaining momentum this election and may gain a 37.2% vote share, which is less than the BJP but more than its vote share during the 2017 elections.
Notably, BJP has gone through a big-time erosion in voter support in the state. In the 2017 elections, the party had won 46.5% of the vote share. It is projected to fall by 8% in the 2022 elections. It had won 57 seats in the 2017 elections. It is projected to go down by 23 seats this time.
Punjab Election 2022: In the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is preferred by 29% Punjabis as CM, interestingly this number corresponds to the rough headcount of the Dalit population in Punjab. Congress President Sidhu is preferred by only 6% of voters.
Arvind Kejriwal is preferred by 17% of voters and Sukhbir Singh Badal is the choice of 15% Punjabis.
The Surprise of the pack is Bhagwant Mann who has shot to a 23% approval rating in the latest round-up from 13% in the last round. If AAP declares him as the CM face, this could consolidate his numbers further as the total support for Kejriwal and Mann is almost 10% more than CM Channi and 5% more than CM Channi and Navjot Siddhu put together.
Punjab Election 2022: In the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is getting the most number of projected seats but failing to go past the majority mark, i.e. 59 seats. AAP is projected to win between 52 to 58 assembly seats, while incumbent Congress is coming second with a projected seat range between 37 to 43 seats.
SAD and its alliance can be kingmakers as the projected seat range for them is between 17 to 23 assembly seats as per the latest Opinion poll on Punjab Elections 2022. BJP is projected to bag seats in the range of 1 to 3.
Punjab Election 2022: Regionally, the Dalit population is more concentrated in the Doaba and Majha regions of Punjab - accounting for a total of 48 seats. According to the ABP-CVoter survey, Congress is projected to win 25 out of its 40 seats from these two regions. AAP is doing significantly better in the Malwa region that accounts for the remaining 69 seats. It is expected to win 41 of its 55 seats from Malwa alone.
Punjab Election 2022: Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal)’s projected vote share has declined by 2% from last round, it is expected to poll 18% vote share and may win around 20 seats in Badal family strongholds. Currently it seems to be out of reckoning for Chandigarh, but the party’s performance will most certainly act as the tie breaker between AAP and INC.
Captain Amarinder Singh and BJP alliance does not seem to be adding up to anything significant. Currently the vote share (2.5%) and seat share (2 seats) of the grouping is projected to remain in lower single digits. However, the alliance’s performance may influence the fate of around 30 seats.
Punjab Election 2022: Aam Aadmi Party and Indian National Congress are projected to poll 40% and 36% votes respectively. This could propel the AAP in pole-position as far as the race of Punjab is concerned. Despite the lead in vote share, AAP may just fall short of majority due to regional distribution of voter-base. Also, Congress is benefiting from its Mayawati moment by installing first Dalit CM in the state, it is consolidating its hold over Dalit voters.
Assembly elections in all five states will be completed in total seven phases with Uttar Pradesh having seven-phase polling starting from February 10 till March 7. Know what ABP-CVoter survey results reveal about the mood on ground in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.
Background
Assembly Election 2022 ABP CVoter Survey HIGHLIGHTS: With Assembly elections approaching in five states Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur, ABP News along with C Voter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters.
The survey highlights several key points related to the states and what voters think of various political parties and their performances ahead of polls.
While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to retain power in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Goa, and Uttarakhand, Opposition parties including Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Samajwadi Party (SP), and others are striving to dethrone the saffron party in these states.
The ABP-CVoter survey also addresses how people perceive the performance of the state governments, whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, role of Opposition, work done by MP and MLAs in the poll-bound states, are among the decisive factors for voters.
The survey also talks about the big issues faced by the country at the moment. It includes factors such as unemployment, economic crisis, farmers' protest, and COVID pandemic.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 1st August 2021 to 2nd September 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]
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