ABP EXIT POLL 2019 Highlights: Narendra Modi set to be PM for 2nd term; NDA to win 277 seats
The exhaustive seven-phased Lok Sabha election concluded on May 19. 59 constituencies, spread over seven states and one Union Territory, went to polls in the concluding phase on Sunday. Polling was held across 13 seats in Uttar Pradesh; all 13 in Punjab; nine in West Bengal; eight each in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh; all 4 constituencies in Himachal Pradesh; three in Jharkhand and the lone seat of Chandigarh on May 19.
ABP News Bureau
Last Updated:
19 May 2019 11:32 PM
As per the final data, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is projected to get 45 seats, the BJP-led NDA 35 and the Congress 2.
The data below, in which the BJP-led NDA was falling five seats short of majority, was based upon the polling till 2 pm. In the final data, the saffron alliance is set to retain power at the Centre by winning 277 seats in the 543-member Parliament. The BJP is slated to get 227 on its own.
In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to get 31 per cent of votes against 21 for the UPA. The other parties are likely to get 47 per cent.
The exit poll projection may bring a set back to the ruling NDA coalition as they seem to be falling five short of the magical 272 mark and have to rely on post-poll tie-ups to form the government at the Centre.
The BJP-led NDA will fall marginally short of majority in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, a survey commissioned by ABP News-CVoter has found. The ruling coalition is likely to win 267 out of the 543 seats and the Congress-led UPA is expected to clinch 127 seats, while the others are expected to win 148 seats.
In the NCT of Delhi, the BJP is pegged to win five out of the seven Lok Sabha seats. The Congress and the ruling AAP may get one seat each.
ABP News exit poll has revealed the BJP is likely to win nine seats in Odisha while Naveen Patnaik's regional force BJD will get 12 seats. The Congress won't be able to open its account.
The NDA in Bihar is set for a big win in Lok Sabha election. As per ABP News exit poll, the BJP-JDU-LJP alliance is set to win whopping 34 seats. The Congress-led UPA, in which RJD is also a partner, may get six seats.
The Congress-led UPA is likely win big in South India in the Lok Sabha elections, as per ABP News exit poll. Of the total 129 seats of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is likely to bag 53 seats; way more than NDA’s 27. Other parties on the other hand are likely to get 48 seats.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is slated to get six seats while the Congress may get five. In 2014, the BJP won all 11 seats in the state.
In Rajasthan, where the Congress is in the power, the BJP is projected to win 19 out of 25seats while the grand old party may only get 6 seats.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress may fail to reap the benefit of its Assembly election performance, according to ABP News exit poll. The BJP here is set to win 24 out of 29 seats and the Congress 5.
The BJP will sweep its saffron fortress of Gujarat with 24 out of 26 seats. The Congress may get only two seats. In 2014, the BJP won all 26 seats.
In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is pegged to win 34 out of 48 seats while the Congress-NCP combine may get 14 seats, as per ABP News exit poll. In 2014 general elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance bagged 23 and 18 seats respectively while the Congress and NCP combine managed to get only two and four seats.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP is set to retain four out of five seats in had won in 2014. The Congress will wrest one seat from the BJP in the hill state.
Uttar Pradesh (80): SP-BSP-RLD- 56 seats, NDA- 22, Congress-2
The SP-BSP-RLD combine will decimate the BJP-led NDA in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections, according to ABP News exit poll. The NDA, which stormed to power in the Centre with the help of 73 out of 80 seats it had won in Uttar Pradesh in previous election, is projected to suffer a huge loss to its seat tally this time. The SP-BSP-RLD 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to win a whopping 56 out of the 80 parliamentary seats on offer in the politically-crucial state while the BJP-led NDA is projected to get only 22 seats, 51 less than what it had won in 2014.
The SP-BSP-RLD combine will decimate the BJP-led NDA in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections, according to ABP News exit poll. The NDA, which stormed to power in the Centre with the help of 73 out of 80 seats it had won in Uttar Pradesh in previous election, is projected to suffer a huge loss to its seat tally this time. The SP-BSP-RLD 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to win a whopping 56 out of the 80 parliamentary seats on offer in the politically-crucial state while the BJP-led NDA is projected to get only 22 seats, 51 less than what it had won in 2014.
Purvanchal (26): SP-BSP-RLD- 18, NDA-8
The exit poll conducted in the Purvanchal region, which entails the key constituencies of Varanasi, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Ghazipur, Balia and others, predicted massive inroads of the 'Mahagathbandhan' in NDA's traditional stronghold. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance here is slated to get 18 out of 26 seats and the NDA 8.
The exit poll conducted in the Purvanchal region, which entails the key constituencies of Varanasi, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Ghazipur, Balia and others, predicted massive inroads of the 'Mahagathbandhan' in NDA's traditional stronghold. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance here is slated to get 18 out of 26 seats and the NDA 8.
Bundelkhand (04): SP-BSP-RLD-3, NDA-1
The Bundelkhand region will also see a Mahagathbandhan sweep. Out of the four seats in the region, the NDA is projected to only one seat while the 'Mahagathbandhan' will get three.
The Bundelkhand region will also see a Mahagathbandhan sweep. Out of the four seats in the region, the NDA is projected to only one seat while the 'Mahagathbandhan' will get three.
Awadh Region(23): SP-BSP-RLD-14, NDA-7, Congress-2
Uttar Pradesh's central Awadh region, which is political hotbed of the state, is also favouring the Mahagathbandhan. Here, the NDA is projected to win 7 out of the 23 seats while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance may secure 14 seats. The Congress will be limited to two seats by only managing to retain its traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Uttar Pradesh's central Awadh region, which is political hotbed of the state, is also favouring the Mahagathbandhan. Here, the NDA is projected to win 7 out of the 23 seats while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance may secure 14 seats. The Congress will be limited to two seats by only managing to retain its traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Western UP (27): SP-BSP-RLD-21, NDA-6
The SP-BSP-RLD 'Mahagathbandhan' looks in commanding position in Western Uttar Pradesh. The region which has a strong presence of Jats, Gujjars and the Upper castes seems to be voting for the Bua-Bhatija combine over the NDA. While the 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to sweep the region winning 21 of the 27 seats, the NDA may get 6 seats. The Congress is out of the race, drawing a blank here.
The SP-BSP-RLD 'Mahagathbandhan' looks in commanding position in Western Uttar Pradesh. The region which has a strong presence of Jats, Gujjars and the Upper castes seems to be voting for the Bua-Bhatija combine over the NDA. While the 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to sweep the region winning 21 of the 27 seats, the NDA may get 6 seats. The Congress is out of the race, drawing a blank here.
Uttar Pradesh which contributes the maximum members of parliament (80) to the Lok Sabha, generally plays the game changer in deciding who will form at the government in the General Elections. The political landscape in the Indo-Gangetic plain region this time has changed with arch rivals Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, without the Congress, stitching a 'Mahagathbandan' alliance to take on the BJP.
It's less than 30 minutes to go before the broadcast of the most accurate and reliable exit poll of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections begins on ABP News. First data of the 2019 Lok Sabha election exit poll would be released at 6:30 pm after the polling for the last and seventh phase ends, according to the direction of the Election Commission.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had made a sweep in Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 out of 80 seats. In West Bengal, it had bagged only 2 out of 42 seats and in Odisha, only one out of 21 seats. In the current elections, the Prime Minister devoted ample time in campaigning in UP amid a sense in the BJP that it would not be easy for the party to repeat the performance of 2014 because of the alliance formed by arch rivals Samajwadi Party and BSP, along with RLD. His greater thrust on personal campaign in West Bengal and Odisha is because of the intent of the BJP to improve its performance in these two states.
Exit Polls Prediction in 2014
NDTV-Hansa Research and CNN-IBN-CSDS, which conducted the poll two days later on May 14, were no wiser either, with the former giving 279 seats to the NDA and 103 seats to the UPA, and the latter predicting 280 seats to the NDA and 97 seats to the UPA. The ITG-Cicero for Headlines Today projected that NDA would get 272 (plus-minus 11), UPA would get 115 (plus-minus 5) and 'others' 156.
NDTV-Hansa Research and CNN-IBN-CSDS, which conducted the poll two days later on May 14, were no wiser either, with the former giving 279 seats to the NDA and 103 seats to the UPA, and the latter predicting 280 seats to the NDA and 97 seats to the UPA. The ITG-Cicero for Headlines Today projected that NDA would get 272 (plus-minus 11), UPA would get 115 (plus-minus 5) and 'others' 156.
Exit Polls Prediction in 2014
ABP News-Nielson poll projected a clear majority for NDA with 281 seats while UPA was projected to get 97. 'Others' were projected to bag 165 seats. The exit poll on Times Now, conducted by ORG, predicted that NDA would get 249 seats and gave the UPA 148 seats. The CSDS for CNN-IBN predicted that NDA may get between 270 and 282, while UPA was projected to get between 92 and 102. BJP alone was projected to get between 230 and 242 while Congress was projected to get between 72 and 82 by the same poll.
ABP News-Nielson poll projected a clear majority for NDA with 281 seats while UPA was projected to get 97. 'Others' were projected to bag 165 seats. The exit poll on Times Now, conducted by ORG, predicted that NDA would get 249 seats and gave the UPA 148 seats. The CSDS for CNN-IBN predicted that NDA may get between 270 and 282, while UPA was projected to get between 92 and 102. BJP alone was projected to get between 230 and 242 while Congress was projected to get between 72 and 82 by the same poll.
Exit Polls Prediction in 2014
Most of the exit polls conducted by various agencies proved to be off the mark except the one which projected 340-odd seats for NDA and 291 for BJP in particular. NDA has won 336 seats in the elections, with BJP's tally being 282. Today's Chanakya that had conducted the exit poll for News 24 channel on May 12 had projected 340 for NDA and around 70 seats to UPA, with an error margin of plus or minus 14. It proved by-far the most accurate projection among different pollsters.
Most of the exit polls conducted by various agencies proved to be off the mark except the one which projected 340-odd seats for NDA and 291 for BJP in particular. NDA has won 336 seats in the elections, with BJP's tally being 282. Today's Chanakya that had conducted the exit poll for News 24 channel on May 12 had projected 340 for NDA and around 70 seats to UPA, with an error margin of plus or minus 14. It proved by-far the most accurate projection among different pollsters.
The BJP-led ruling dispensation has exuded the confidence of winning over 300 seats in the House while if at all the Congress manages to grab around 120 seats, a Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government with support from other regional parties could be on the cards. In another scenario, there could be a Third Front government supported by the Congress which would deny Narendra Modi a second term.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed 142 rallies during his marathon election campaign, devoting 40 per cent of these in the politically-crucial Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha which have a combined seat strength of 143 Lok Sabha seats. Besides, these three states, Modi gave much importance to states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat, where he held 50 rallies altogether. These six states comprise 196 Lok Sabha seats, out of which the BJP won 150 on its own and 167 with allies 167 in the 2014 polls.
In 2019, once again, India is witnessing the resurgence of coalition politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has ridiculed the 'mahagathbandhan' as an instance of 'mahamilawat', with the opposition parties arguing that the Modi government has failed to fulfil the different regional aspirations of the country. But, as the Lok Sabha election concludes, ABP News in its biggest exit poll will reveal where that coalition lies, what is the actual scene and ground reality for the politics of alliance in India.
The ongoing 2019 general election is one of the most closely contested general elections in Indias parliamentary history of India. It also has one of the most widely spread election schedules of seven phases in a span of 39 days. Even the most experienced political experts are not in a position to do a precise qualified prediction of the results. ABP News has conducted the biggest exit poll to bring to you the most accurate data. Stay tuned with us!
Congress President Rahul Gandhi's campaign plank was centred over his farm loan waiver promise and the alleged irregularities in the Rafale jet deal. He also accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of practicing the culture of crony capitalism.
During the bitterly fought elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi whipped up nationalistic sentiments and repeatedly invoked the Balakot air strikes into his campaign speeches to woo voters and also launched an allout offensive against the Congress.
At 7:00 pm, exit poll results of Maharashtra, which sends 48 members of the Lower House, will be revealed. The state voted in four phases from April 11 to April 29. In 2014 general elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance bagged 23 and 18 seats respectively while the Congress and NCP combine managed to get only two and four seats.
After Uttar Pradesh, exit poll results of the hill state of Uttarakhand, which has five Lok Sabha seats, will be released. In 2014, the BJP won all the five Lok Sabha seats in Uttarakhand.
With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is key to power at the Centre. Exit poll results for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP will be released first at 6:30. In Uttar Pradesh, region-wise results of Exit poll will be flashed starting with the Western UP, followed by Awadh-Bundelkhand and Purvanchal regions.
First data of the 2019 Lok Sabha election exit poll would be released at 6:30 pm after the polling for the last and seventh phase ends, according to the direction of the Election Commission.
As the country debates over the outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, ABP News has conducted the biggest exit poll to bring to you the most accurate and reliable prediction of the poll results.
As the bitterly fought marathon Lok Sabha elections spread over 38 days drew to a close on Sunday, focus is now shifted to the results of the exit polls, which will give an early indication of the final results. According to the Election Commission notification, exit poll results data can be aired from 6.30pm.
Background
The exhaustive seven-phased Lok Sabha election concluded on May 19. 59 constituencies, spread over seven states and one Union Territory, went to polls in the concluding phase on Sunday.
Polling was held across 13 seats in Uttar Pradesh; all 13 in Punjab; nine in West Bengal; eight each in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh; all 4 constituencies in Himachal Pradesh; three in Jharkhand and the lone seat of Chandigarh on May 19. Counting of votes for all the seven phases will be taken up on the 23rd of this month.
What time will the ABP News exit poll and pre-exit poll go live on air?
After the end of 7th phase polling is 59 constituencies, the ABP News-Nielsen Exit poll will be released. The pre-exit poll coverage will, however, go on air from 4 pm onward.
How and where to watch ABP News-Nielsen exit poll?
You can watch the exit poll coverage on ABP News TV channel
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2019 Lok Sabha elections
The voting for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was held across 543 constituencies in seven phases from April 11 to May 19. The first phase happened on 11 April, the second phase on April 18, the third phase on 23rd April, fourth phase on 29th April, fifth phase on 5th May, sixth phase on May 12th and seventh and the final phase on May 19th.
What are political parties claiming?
The BJP-led ruling dispensation has exuded confidence of winning over 300 seats in the House while if at all the Congress manages to grab around 120 seats, a Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government with support from other regional parties could be on the cards. In another scenario, there could be a Third Front government supported by the Congress which would deny Narendra Modi a second term. A lot will depend on the second largest party. Watch our comprehensive exit poll to know if BJP will be able to repeat its 2014 performance or will there be a case of a hung outcome.
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