‘Super El Niño’ Threat Looms: Why India Could Face Extreme Heat, Weak Monsoon After May 9

According to a recent report by Zero Carbon Analytics, the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest one observed in the last 140 years.

Australia and Southeast Asia face heightened drought risks, while Indonesia’s weather agency BMKG has warned that this year’s dry season may be longer and far more severe than normal.

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• North India faces renewed heatwave post-May 9.
• Super El Niño event strongly predicted for 2026.
• Unusual Pacific warming pattern raises extreme heat concerns.

After a brief spell of scattered rain and cloud cover brought temporary relief to parts of north India in early May, weather conditions are expected to change significantly after May 9, with forecasts pointing to a renewed spell of intense heat and heatwave conditions.

According to recent reports cited from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international experts, the current phase of cooler winds is ending and could give way to severe heat, heatwaves and a broader climate threat linked to a possible Super El Niño.

What Is Super El Niño?

El Niño refers to the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. When sea surface temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, the event is categorised as a Super El Niño.

According to a recent report by Zero Carbon Analytics, the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest in the last 140 years.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said El Niño conditions are highly likely to return between May and July 2026.

WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia said all climate models are pointing in the same direction, with projections indicating the phenomenon may intensify further.

Rare Ocean Pattern Raises Concern

Scientists observed an unusual warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean at the start of 2026, with warm water accumulating simultaneously in three separate regions, near Indonesia, close to Central America, and off the South American coast.

Together, these formed a ring-like warming pattern that researchers say has not been seen in the past 40 years.

Professor Tao Lian of China’s Second Institute of Oceanography said this “annular warming pattern” is the largest recorded in four decades.

He said the heat currently stored beneath the ocean surface is sufficient to produce a moderate El Niño, but the unusual pattern could push it into Super El Niño territory.

Researchers in Indonesia have said eastern Pacific temperatures have already risen 5 degrees Celsius above average and may intensify further from July.

Heatwave Conditions Expected To Intensify In India

India has already seen heatwave alerts issued in 11 states during April.

On April 25, the temperature in Banda, Uttar Pradesh, touched 47.4 degrees Celsius, despite it still being April.

Once the temporary relief from western disturbances ends after May 9, another spell of intense heat is expected.

Meteorologists have also warned of warmer nights, with several parts of north India already under alerts for “warm night” and “severe warm night” conditions, indicating daytime temperatures of 46-47 degrees Celsius and night temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius.

Weak Monsoon Forecast Raises Agriculture Concerns

The IMD said on April 13 that the monsoon is expected to be weaker than usual this year.

India normally receives around 870 mm of rainfall during the monsoon season, but the estimate for this year is 800 mm.

The probability of monsoon failure has been pegged at 35 per cent, compared with 16 per cent in normal years.

Since nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the four monsoon months, any shortfall could significantly affect water availability and crop output.

Farmers Face Double Blow

Around 60 per cent of Indian farmers depend on rainfall for kharif cultivation.

Major crops such as paddy, pulses and sugarcane require substantial water, meaning a weak monsoon could hit production and push up food prices.

Agriculture contributes 18 per cent to India’s GDP and supports roughly half the country’s population.

Regions Most At Risk

Northwest and central India, including Rajasthan, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, face the highest risk of drought and heatwaves.

Northeast India and Assam may experience irregular monsoon patterns.

Changing snowfall trends in the Himalayas could affect the flow of rivers such as the Ganga and Yamuna.

Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh may receive above-normal rainfall during the northeast monsoon.

Wider Impact Across Asia

The effects are expected to extend beyond India.

Australia and Southeast Asia face heightened drought risks, while Indonesia’s weather agency BMKG has warned that this year’s dry season may be longer and more severe than normal.

Typhoon activity in the western Pacific may also increase, raising fears of a repeat of disruptions seen during the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño events.