How BJP's Big Wins In Five States Have Changed The Math For 2027 Presidential Polls?

The BJP suffered a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it failed to secure a majority on its own, with its tally dropping from 303 seats to 240.

While the current numbers strongly favour the BJP-led NDA, political observers note that nothing in politics can be considered completely certain.

Source : PTI

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• Assembly election wins significantly boost NDA's 2027 presidential election prospects.
• BJP losses in Lok Sabha offset by strong state-level electoral college gains.
• Maharashtra, Bihar, and West Bengal shifts provide decisive advantage to NDA.
• NDA holds commanding position due to parliamentary and state assembly majorities.

The results of the Assembly elections held in five states have significantly altered the political equations for the 2027 Presidential election. In particular, the BJP’s historic victory in West Bengal has dramatically strengthened the NDA’s position in the Electoral College, making the alliance’s path to victory appear far easier than before.

With the BJP-led NDA now commanding strong numbers in Parliament and state Assemblies, the alliance is seen as being in a dominant position ahead of the next Presidential election.

How The Presidential Election System Works

Under Articles 54 and 55 of the Constitution, the President of India is elected by an Electoral College comprising elected members of both Houses of Parliament, the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, along with elected MLAs from all states and Union Territories with Assemblies. Nominated MPs and MLAs are not eligible to vote in the Presidential election.

However, every vote does not carry equal value. The Constitution provides a formula to ensure a balance between the total value of MPs’ votes and MLAs’ votes.

The value of each MP’s vote was 700 in the 2022 Presidential election and is expected to remain around the same in 2027. Meanwhile, the vote value of MLAs varies from state to state and is determined based on the 1971 Census population and the number of Assembly seats. For example, the vote value of one MLA from Uttar Pradesh in 2022 was 208, while in smaller states like Sikkim it was only 7.

Lok Sabha Setback Offset By Assembly Gains

The BJP suffered a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it failed to secure a majority on its own, with its tally dropping from 303 seats to 240. This reduced the BJP’s vote strength in the Electoral College by over 44,000 votes, leading the opposition to believe the NDA’s road to victory had become difficult.

However, subsequent Assembly election victories by the BJP and NDA changed the scenario completely. Strong performances in major states such as Maharashtra, Bihar and especially West Bengal helped the alliance not only recover the losses from the Lok Sabha polls but also gain a decisive advantage for the Presidential election.

Three Key States Changed The Entire Equation

After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar have some of the highest vote values in the Presidential Electoral College. The NDA’s position in these states has improved sharply:

Maharashtra: NDA’s strength in the 288-member Assembly has reportedly risen from around 150 MLAs during the 2022 Presidential election to nearly 237 now.

Bihar: NDA’s tally in the 243-member Assembly has increased from 125 MLAs to around 202.

West Bengal: The biggest political shift came in West Bengal, where the BJP won 207 out of 294 Assembly seats and formed the government for the first time. Previously, the party had only 77 MLAs in the state.

NDA’s Numbers Put Alliance In Strong Position

In the 2022 Presidential election, the total value of votes in the Electoral College stood at 10,86,431. The figure may rise slightly in 2027 due to the inclusion of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. To win, a candidate needs more than 50 per cent of the total vote value.

At present, the NDA appears comfortably placed to cross that mark.

In the Lok Sabha, the BJP has 240 MPs, while allies such as the TDP and JD(U) take the NDA tally to around 293 MPs. In the Rajya Sabha, the BJP’s strength has crossed 113, while the NDA as a whole reportedly has between 140 and 148 members.

The NDA is also in power in 21 of India’s 28 states, including 15 states where the BJP governs on its own. These states collectively contribute thousands of MLAs to the Electoral College. Uttar Pradesh alone contributes vote value exceeding 83,800, where the BJP remains firmly in power under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

If all NDA MPs and MLAs vote along alliance lines, the coalition is expected to comfortably secure the majority needed to elect its preferred Presidential candidate in 2027.

Can The Equation Still Change?

While the current numbers strongly favour the BJP-led NDA, political observers note that nothing in politics can be considered completely certain. Cross-voting, internal alliance tensions or major political developments before 2027 could still alter the equations.

However, based on the present political landscape, the NDA appears to hold a clear and commanding advantage heading into the next Presidential election