Indian Economy Remains Resilient, GDP Growth Seen At 6.4–6.5% In Q4 FY25: SBI Report
Adding to the economic outlook, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early onset of the southwest monsoon, likely within the next few days, potentially the earliest since 2009
India’s economy continues to display resilience, with GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY25 projected to be in the range of 6.4 per cent to 6.5 per cent despite ongoing global uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions, according to a report released Wednesday by the State Bank of India (SBI).
The forecast, published by SBI’s Economic Research Department, is based on the bank’s in-house ‘Nowcasting Model’, a statistical tool that utilises 36 high-frequency indicators reflecting industrial performance, service sector activity, and global economic trends. The model, which employs a dynamic factor approach, analyses data from Q4 FY13 to Q2 FY23 to estimate the underlying momentum of economic growth.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at SBI, noted that assuming no significant revisions to Q1 through Q3 data by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the full-year GDP for FY25 is expected to settle at approximately 6.3 per cent.
Adding to the economic outlook, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early onset of the southwest monsoon, likely within the next few days, potentially the earliest since 2009. An early and strong monsoon could significantly boost agricultural output. The government has already set an ambitious foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the 2025–26 crop year, up from 341.55 million tonnes targeted for 2024–25.
Shift In Household Sentiment
The SBI report also highlights a shift in household sentiment. A decline in inflation expectations has supported increased discretionary spending, which may sustain domestic demand in the near term. However, unchanged consumer confidence levels indicate persistent caution among households regarding economic prospects.
On a global scale, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a slowdown in world economic growth to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026. The report warns that heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainties may dampen global momentum.
Nevertheless, India’s growth outlook remains comparatively strong. The economy is expected to expand by 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in FY26, led by private consumption, especially in rural areas. However, these forecasts are slightly lower than previous estimates, reflecting the spillover effects of global instability.
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