‘Shock Is Coming’: Uday Kotak Echoes PM Modi's Warning, Says India To Brace For Major Iran War Impact

Uday Kotak backs PM Modi’s call for restrained spending, warning that oil shocks and global instability could test India’s economy. He stressed the importance of not living beyond its means.

Uday Kotak advised India to avoid excessive consumption and prepare for prolonged global uncertainty.

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• Uday Kotak advises India to curb excessive consumption amid global uncertainty.
• West Asia crisis poses risks to India's energy security and economy.
• Fuel prices may rise as companies absorb current price increases.
• Kotak urges fiscal discipline and long-term planning for businesses.

India must avoid excessive consumption and prepare for prolonged global uncertainty, banker and founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank Uday Kotak said on Tuesday while backing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal for financial prudence. Addressing the annual summit of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), Kotak said the country should not fall into the trap of “living beyond its means” at a time when geopolitical instability and energy risks are mounting globally.

He said the Prime Minister’s remarks should be viewed in the context of strengthening India’s economic resilience as the world faces a volatile and uncertain environment.

West Asia Crisis Raises Alarm Over Energy Security

Kotak pointed to the escalating tensions in West Asia as a major concern for India’s economy, particularly because of the country’s dependence on imported crude oil.

Describing the situation as “far bigger and more complex than it appears,” he warned that external disruptions could have deep consequences for inflation, currency stability and household finances.

“Simple steps like moderating wasteful consumption matter. I see it in terms of the country’s profit and loss account and balance sheet,” Kotak explained.

He also cautioned against complacency and urged policymakers, businesses and consumers to remain prepared for sudden economic shocks. “We should prepare for paranoia before the event,” he remarked.

#WATCH | Delhi: Founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Uday Kotak says, "My view is we should prepare for paranoia before the event. We must hope that tough times do not come or remain, but we must prepare for the worst. It is about preparation. Be ready for tough times, rather than… pic.twitter.com/A9sabctqel

— ANI (@ANI) May 12, 2026

According to Kotak, India’s reliance on overseas oil supplies, which account for more than 85 per cent of domestic requirements, leaves the country vulnerable to global price spikes and supply disruptions. “The shock is coming,” he cautioned. “I don't think you're very far away from the shock... unless the Iran war stops tomorrow morning and we have been hoping for it since February 28.”

Fuel Price Pressures Could Intensify

At the same summit, Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said state-run oil marketing companies are currently absorbing heavy losses to shield consumers from rising fuel prices. He noted that crude oil prices have climbed sharply from nearly $65 per barrel to around $115 per barrel, resulting in daily losses of nearly Rs 1,000 crore for fuel retailers.

Puri estimated that under-recoveries for the first quarter could touch Rs 1.98 lakh crore, though he maintained that India has so far ensured uninterrupted fuel availability despite the turbulent global environment.

Kotak Calls For Fiscal Discipline 

Kotak also stressed the importance of tighter fiscal management for both governments and corporations, arguing that the impact of higher energy prices has not yet fully reached Indian households and businesses.

“it’s coming—and it’s coming big,” he said while referring to the delayed effect of rising fuel-linked costs on consumers with lower disposable incomes.

He further urged Indian firms to focus on long-term investments and competitiveness instead of prioritising short-term market gains.

According to Kotak, India “financialised too early,” and companies must now build stronger foundations capable of withstanding future economic disruptions.