8th Pay Commission: When Will Employees Get Hike? April 13 Meet To Finalise Demands

Adani Moves US Court To Dismiss SEC Fraud Case, Challenges Jurisdiction

ABP Live Business — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 11:28:41 +0530

Billionaire Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani have approached a US court seeking dismissal of a securities fraud lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), arguing that the case falls outside American jurisdiction and lacks substantive grounds.

The development marks a fresh legal turn in the case linked to a 2021 bond issuance by Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL), as the Adanis contest both the scope and validity of the SEC’s claims, reported PTI.

Legal Pushback Ahead of Key Motion

In a pre-motion letter submitted ahead of a planned April 30 filing, the Adanis, through their legal counsel, outlined multiple grounds on which they believe the lawsuit should be dismissed.

The SEC had initiated the case in November 2024, alleging that investors were misled due to the non-disclosure of an alleged bribery scheme involving Indian state officials.

However, the Adanis have argued that the complaint is legally flawed and fails to establish wrongdoing.

Jurisdiction at the Centre of Dispute

A key plank of the defence is that US courts do not have personal jurisdiction in the matter.

According to the filing, neither Gautam Adani nor Sagar Adani had sufficient connections with the United States, nor were they directly involved in the bond offering in question.

The defendants have maintained that the transaction does not meet the threshold required for US securities laws to apply.

Details of the Bond Sale

The case revolves around a $750 million bond sale conducted in 2021 by AGEL.

The Adanis stated that the issuance took place outside the United States under Rule 144A and Regulation S exemptions. The securities were initially sold to non-US underwriters and only later resold in part to qualified institutional buyers.

They further argued that the SEC complaint does not allege that Gautam Adani approved the issuance, participated in key meetings, or directed any actions towards US investors.

‘Extraterritorial Overreach’ Claim

The filing also contends that the SEC’s case represents an impermissible extraterritorial application of US securities laws.

It points out that the issuer is an Indian entity, the securities were not listed in the United States, and the alleged conduct occurred entirely within India.

Citing US Supreme Court precedent, the defendants said the SEC has failed to demonstrate the existence of a “domestic transaction”, a requirement for invoking US securities regulations.

No Investor Losses Alleged

The Adanis’ legal team also highlighted that the SEC complaint does not cite any investor losses.

They noted that the bonds in question matured and were fully repaid with interest in 2024, challenging the basis of the fraud allegations.

Disputing Bribery Allegations

The filing further rejects the underlying bribery claims, stating that there is no credible evidence to support such allegations.

It also argues that statements referenced by the SEC, including those related to ESG commitments, anti-corruption measures and corporate reputation, amount to general corporate optimism or “puffery”, which cannot be relied upon by investors as definitive assurances.

No Evidence of Intent to Defraud

The defence maintains that the SEC has failed to link either Gautam Adani or Sagar Adani to specific misleading statements or demonstrate any intent to defraud investors.

As a result, the defendants have sought dismissal of the case in its entirety.

What Happens Next?

The Adanis have indicated their readiness to appear for a pre-motion conference if required, as the case moves towards the next legal stage.

The outcome of the April 30 motion could prove crucial in determining whether the case proceeds further in US courts.

Oil Prices Crash Up To 20% After US-Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Reopens

ABP Live Business — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 11:10:22 +0530

Global crude oil markets witnessed a sharp reversal on Wednesday, with prices plunging as much as 20 per cent after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, offering relief to energy markets rattled by weeks of disruption.

The development, which includes a commitment to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, has eased fears of a prolonged supply shock in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

International benchmark Brent crude futures fell nearly 16 per cent, dropping $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low. Meanwhile, US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent, falling $21.90 to $91.05, reported IANS.

The sharp correction comes after weeks of heightened volatility, during which oil prices had surged significantly amid fears of supply disruptions.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically vital waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows.

Iran had restricted passage through the strait for several weeks, triggering concerns over supply bottlenecks and pushing oil prices higher. The route is also critical for shipments of liquefied natural gas, making it a key artery for global energy trade.

Conflict Pauses After Weeks of Tension

The US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began in February, has now been paused for two weeks after around 40 days of hostilities.

President Trump’s announcement came just ahead of his earlier deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face potential strikes on its civilian infrastructure.

Iran, in turn, signalled that it would halt its military operations, provided attacks against it also cease. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

From Surge to Sharp Correction

Oil prices had surged dramatically in March, rising by more than 60 per cent during the period, as markets priced in the risk of a prolonged disruption in energy supplies.

The ceasefire announcement has now triggered a sharp unwinding of those gains, as traders reassess supply risks.

Markets React: Equities Rally

The easing of geopolitical tensions also lifted investor sentiment in equity markets.

Indian benchmark indices rallied strongly, with the Sensex jumping nearly 4 per cent and the Nifty rising 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs in early trade.

The sharp rebound reflects renewed optimism among investors as immediate risks to global energy supplies appear to have eased.

What Lies Ahead?

While the ceasefire offers temporary relief, market participants remain cautious, given that the truce is limited to two weeks and dependent on both sides adhering to its terms.

The situation in West Asia continues to be closely watched, as any renewed escalation could once again disrupt supply chains and trigger volatility in global oil markets.

For now, the ceasefire has provided a breather, but uncertainty lingers, keeping traders, policymakers and investors on alert.

RBI MPC Pegs CPI Inflation At 4.6% For FY27 As US-Iran War, Oil Price Risks Loom

Sakshi Arora — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 10:48:00 +0530

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has projected consumer price inflation (CPI) at 4.6 per cent for the current fiscal year (FY27), even as global uncertainties continue to weigh on the economic outlook.

The projection comes at a time when the global economy is facing unprecedented challenges, including the ongoing conflict in West Asia, a temporary ceasefire announcement, and continued disruptions in global supply chains.

Inflation Trajectory: Quarter-wise Outlook

Providing a detailed inflation path, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra outlined the following projections for FY27:

Q1: 4.0 per cent
Q2: 4.4 per cent
Q3: 5.2 per cent
Q4: 4.7 per cent

The trajectory suggests a gradual rise in inflation through the first half of the fiscal year, followed by some moderation towards the end.

Inflation Below Target in Early Months

The governor noted that inflation remained below the target in January and February, indicating a relatively benign start to the year.

However, evolving global conditions and supply-side disruptions could influence price trends going forward.

Global Headwinds Cloud Outlook

The RBI highlighted that the global environment has turned more challenging, with rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions adding to uncertainty.

Financial markets have also witnessed increased volatility, with equities seeing a broad-based correction.

Domestic Fundamentals Remain Strong

Despite the shifting global backdrop, the central bank emphasised that India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain on a stronger footing compared to previous crisis episodes and relative to many other economies.

Policy Continuity Amid Uncertainty

Against this backdrop, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged, signalling a cautious and data-dependent approach. The decision reflects the need to balance inflation management with growth considerations amid evolving global risks.

The RBI also indicated that the current account deficit is expected to remain moderate and within sustainable levels, supported by robust remittance inflows.

Governor Malhotra stressed that elevated global uncertainties require continuous monitoring and vigilance from policymakers. While inflation remains within manageable levels for now, the RBI’s projections highlight the impact of global developments on domestic price stability.

RBI MPC Lowers Growth Outlook, Pegs FY27 GDP At 6.9%. Oil Prices, Hormuz Risks in Focus

Sakshi Arora — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 10:25:16 +0530

In a closely watched policy decision, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday retained the benchmark repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while unveiling fresh GDP projections under a new data series.

The central bank projected GDP growth for FY27 at 6.9 per cent, while estimating growth for FY26 at a stronger 7.6 per cent under the revised series.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the previous year’s growth estimate of 7.6 per cent reflects strong underlying momentum in economic activity, supported by robust consumption and investment, favourable financial conditions, and ongoing structural reforms.

Risks to Growth Emerge

However, the governor flagged emerging headwinds that could weigh on the FY27 outlook. He pointed to elevated energy and commodity prices, along with potential supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, as key risks that could impact growth going forward.

He added that the government has been proactive in ensuring the availability of critical inputs across sectors to minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions.

Supportive Factors Remain Intact

Despite external risks, Malhotra highlighted that domestic growth drivers remain resilient. Sustained momentum in the services sector, the continuing impact of GST rationalisation, and healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates are expected to support economic activity.

FY27 Growth Outlook: Quarter-wise Break-up

Providing a detailed outlook, the RBI projected GDP growth for FY27 across quarters as follows:

Q1: 6.8 per cent
Q2: 6.7 per cent
Q3: 7.0 per cent
Q4: 7.2 per cent

The projections indicate a gradual pickup in growth momentum through the fiscal year.

Repo Rate Held Steady at 5.25%

The decision to keep rates unchanged was taken unanimously by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

The MPC also retained its ‘neutral’ stance, signalling a data-dependent approach as it navigates global uncertainty and evolving inflation dynamics.

Key Rates Unchanged

With the latest policy decision, key rates remain as follows:

Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 5 per cent
Marginal Standing Facility (MSF): 5.5 per cent
Bank Rate: 5.5 per cent

The central bank’s move reflects a preference for continuity amid mixed global signals and steady domestic growth conditions.

Policy Continuity After February Pause

The April decision follows the February 2026 policy review, where the RBI had also maintained status quo after cumulative rate cuts of 125 basis points during FY26.

At the time, the MPC had highlighted the need to assess the transmission and impact of earlier rate cuts before considering further action, a stance that continues to guide policy.

Balancing Growth and Global Risks

The latest projections come at a time when policymakers are balancing resilient domestic demand with rising external headwinds. While growth remains steady, global uncertainty and inflation risks continue to shape the RBI’s cautious policy approach.

The updated GDP estimates under the new series provide a fresh baseline for assessing India’s economic trajectory in the coming fiscal year.

RBI MPC Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged At 5.25% Amid West Asia War Risks

Sakshi Arora — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 10:04:28 +0530

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, on Wednesday kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, opting for continuity amid global uncertainty and evolving inflation dynamics. The governor revealed that the decision was taken unanimously by the panel.

The MPC also opted to maintain a 'Neutral' stance on the economy going forward.

The decision, widely anticipated by markets, comes at a time when policymakers are balancing rising external risks with steady domestic growth.

Key Rates Remain Unchanged

With the latest decision, the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate remains at 5 per cent, while the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and the bank rate continue at 5.5 per cent each.

The MPC also retained its ‘neutral’ policy stance, signalling flexibility as it navigates the evolving macroeconomic environment.

Global Shock and Policy Trade-Off

The escalation of the West Asia conflict has triggered significant disruptions across global supply chains, posing fresh challenges for the world economy. The evolving situation has raised concerns over a mix of higher inflation and slower global growth, complicating the policy environment for central banks.

Against this backdrop, monetary authorities are faced with a difficult balancing act, containing inflationary pressures while ensuring that growth momentum is not severely impacted. Global financial markets have already begun reflecting this uncertainty, with sovereign bond yields hardening further amid inflation concerns, equity markets witnessing corrections, and the US dollar strengthening on safe-haven demand. This has, in turn, put pressure on currencies across major economies.

Energy Prices and Supply Risks to Growth

Looking ahead, elevated energy and commodity prices, along with supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to weigh on domestic production in FY27. Increased volatility in global financial markets and its spillover into domestic conditions could also impact growth prospects.

On the external front, exports may face headwinds due to disruptions in key shipping routes and rising freight and insurance costs, particularly if the conflict persists.

Domestic Growth Drivers Offer Support

However, domestic growth drivers continue to offer support. Strong momentum in the services sector, the continued benefits of GST rationalisation, improving capacity utilisation in manufacturing, and healthy balance sheets of corporates and financial institutions are expected to sustain demand.

In addition, the government’s push towards expanding domestic manufacturing in strategic sectors, as outlined in the Union Budget 2026–27, is likely to support the medium-term growth outlook.

GDP Outlook for FY27

Taking these factors into account, real GDP growth for FY27 has been projected at 6.9 per cent, with quarterly estimates at 6.8 per cent in Q1, 6.7 per cent in Q2, 7.0 per cent in Q3 and 7.2 per cent in Q4.

However, risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly if the conflict intensifies, spreads geographically, or disrupts energy infrastructure further.

Inflation Trends and Recent Data

On the inflation front, headline CPI rose to 3.2 per cent in February 2026 from 2.7 per cent in January, largely due to unfavourable base effects, even as underlying momentum remained subdued.

Food inflation edged higher, while core inflation, excluding food and fuel, stayed stable. Excluding precious metals, core inflation remained moderate at around 2.1 per cent, indicating contained underlying price pressures.

Inflation Outlook for FY27

Nonetheless, the inflation outlook remains uncertain. Volatility in global energy and commodity prices has already led to price increases in select fuels such as premium petrol, LPG and industrial diesel. At the same time, favourable rabi crop prospects have provided some comfort on the food inflation front.

Overall, CPI inflation for FY27 is projected at 4.6 per cent, with a quarterly trajectory of 4.0 per cent in Q1, 4.4 per cent in Q2, 5.2 per cent in Q3 and 4.7 per cent in Q4.

Persistently high energy prices and potential weather disruptions, including possible El Niño conditions, pose upside risks to the inflation outlook.

While inflation remains within the target band for now, geopolitical tensions and supply-side uncertainties have increased risks going forward. Core inflation pressures remain relatively muted, although second-round effects from higher input costs cannot be ruled out.

Policy Stance and Way Forward

High-frequency indicators suggest that domestic economic activity continues to remain resilient, supported by strong consumption and investment demand. However, rising input costs and supply disruptions could constrain production in certain sectors.

The central bank noted that while the Indian economy is better positioned to withstand shocks compared to earlier episodes, the current situation represents a supply-side shock. In this context, policymakers have opted for a cautious approach, choosing to pause and closely monitor evolving global and domestic developments while retaining flexibility in policy decisions.

Continuity After February Pause

The April decision follows the February 2026 policy review, where the central bank had also held rates steady after cumulative rate cuts of 125 basis points during FY26. The MPC had then emphasised the need to assess the impact of earlier rate cuts before taking further action, a theme that continues to shape policy thinking.

Dalal Street Erupts: Sensex Jumps 2,600 Points After US-Iran Ceasefire Breakthrough

Sakshi Arora — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 09:18:14 +0530

Indian equity markets opened on a strong note on Wednesday, tracking upbeat global cues and a sharp correction in crude oil prices, even as investors remained focused on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision due later in the day.

Both benchmarks skyrocketed and climbed over 3 per cent as markets started trading. The BSE Sensex opened trading near 77,200, soaring 2,600 points, and the NSE Nifty50 started the session around 23,850, jumping more than 700 points, as of 9:15 AM.

At around 9:07 AM in the pre-open session, the Sensex surged 2,681.77 points or 3.59 per cent to 77,298.35, while the Nifty50 jumped 734.95 points or 3.18 per cent to 23,858.60, indicating a sharp gap-up opening.

Global Rally Lifts Market Sentiment

Global cues remained firmly supportive, with Asian equities witnessing a strong rebound after reports of easing geopolitical tensions.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the rally, surging 5.28 per cent or 2,822.44 points, while South Korea’s Kospi advanced 5.61 per cent or 308.11 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Taiwan’s Weighted Index also recorded solid gains.

The broad-based rally reflects improved investor sentiment following weeks of volatility linked to tensions in West Asia.

GIFT Nifty Signals Strong Opening

India’s GIFT Nifty mirrored the global optimism, rising over 3 per cent to trade near 23,841 levels in early deals.

The strong uptick pointed to a firm opening for domestic benchmarks, although traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of key domestic triggers.

Oil Prices See Sharp Correction

Crude oil prices declined significantly, providing a major boost to market sentiment. Brent crude dropped 13.04 per cent to $95.02 per barrel, while US crude fell 13.76 per cent to $97.41 per barrel in early trade.

The correction follows easing concerns over supply disruptions after developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route.

Lower oil prices are typically supportive for India, helping ease inflationary pressures and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Ceasefire Developments Ease Concerns

Sentiment improved after reports of a temporary easing in hostilities, with Iran indicating a pause in military operations under certain conditions and allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for a limited period.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump also indicated a pause in military action, signalling potential progress in negotiations.

These developments have provided relief to global markets, although the situation remains fluid.

RBI Policy Decision In Focus

Despite the strong global cues, the key trigger for domestic markets remains the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, expected later in the day.

Investors will closely track the central bank’s stance on interest rates, inflation and growth, along with forward guidance.

The interplay of lower crude prices and global uncertainties is likely to influence the RBI’s outlook.

Previous Session Recap

On Tuesday, domestic markets ended higher, supported by a decline in crude oil prices and a rally in global equities.

The Sensex rose 509.73 points, or 0.69 per cent, to settle at 74,616.58, while the Nifty advanced 155.40 points, or 0.68 per cent, to close at 23,123.65.

Gift Nifty Surges, Asian Markets Rally Ahead Of RBI MPC Decision: What To Expect Today

Sakshi Arora — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 08:44:34 +0530

Global cues are firmly in focus for Indian markets on Wednesday morning, with a sharp rally across Asian equities and a steep correction in crude oil prices setting a positive tone ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision due later in the day.

With the RBI’s rate verdict expected in the next two hours, market participants are closely tracking both domestic policy signals and global developments that could shape trading sentiment in the near term.

Asian Markets Surge On Ceasefire News

Asian equities staged a strong rebound on Wednesday after reports of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased geopolitical concerns.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the rally, surging 5.28 per cent or 2,822.44 points. South Korea’s KOSPI followed closely, gaining 5.61 per cent or 308.11 points, reported ANI. Other regional markets also posted solid gains, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 3.04 per cent or 763.47 points, and Taiwan’s Weighted Index climbing 3.72 per cent or 1,234.69 points.

The rally reflects a sharp improvement in global risk sentiment after weeks of volatility driven by escalating tensions in West Asia.

Gift Nifty Signals Strong Opening For India

India’s Gift Nifty mirrored the global optimism, rising more than 3 per cent to trade at 23,841.00 levels in early deals.

The strong uptick indicates a likely gap-up opening for domestic benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Sensex. Traders will, however, remain cautious ahead of the RBI’s policy announcement, which could influence intraday direction.

Market participants are expected to balance global optimism with domestic policy cues, making today’s session particularly sensitive to news flow.

Oil Prices Slide As Supply Fears Ease

One of the most significant triggers for the global rally has been the sharp fall in crude oil prices.

Brent crude dropped 13.04 per cent to $95.02 per barrel at around 7:24 AM, while US crude fell 13.76 per cent to $97.41 per barrel.

The decline follows confirmation of a temporary easing in tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy corridor.

Lower oil prices are typically positive for India, which imports a large portion of its crude requirements. A sustained correction in oil prices could help ease inflationary pressures and improve macroeconomic stability.

Gold Gains As Investors Rebalance

Even as oil prices declined, gold moved higher, rising by 100.45 points or 2.13 per cent.

The move suggests that while risk appetite has improved, investors continue to maintain some allocation to safe-haven assets amid lingering uncertainty.

Ceasefire Brings Temporary Relief

The improvement in sentiment comes after Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that military operations would be paused if attacks on Iran were halted, signalling a willingness to de-escalate tensions.

“On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region. In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” Araghchi wrote.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump also announced a pause in military operations, indicating that negotiations could move forward based on existing proposals.

RBI MPC Decision: Key Trigger Ahead

While global cues remain supportive, the immediate focus for Indian markets is the RBI’s monetary policy decision, which is expected shortly.

Investors will be watching not just the repo rate decision but also the central bank’s commentary on inflation, growth and global risks.

The sharp movement in crude oil prices, currency trends and geopolitical developments are likely to influence the RBI’s outlook.

A stable or accommodative policy stance could reinforce the positive sentiment seen in global markets, while any surprise shift may lead to volatility.

What Analysts Are Expecting

Market participants broadly expect the RBI to strike a balanced tone, supporting growth while keeping a close watch on inflation risks.

Ajitabh Bharti, Co-founder and Executive Director, CapitalXB, pointed out that India currently has sufficient fiscal space, giving both the government and the central bank room to remain growth-supportive despite global uncertainty. He suggested that the RBI may continue focusing on reducing the cost of capital, particularly for MSMEs, as sustained growth remains critical in navigating external shocks.

"The need of the hour is strong policy coordination so that growth momentum does not falter," Bharti said, adding that liquidity conditions are likely to remain comfortable and inflation should stay within the RBI’s policy band over time.

A similar view is echoed by Atul Monga, CEO & Co-Founder, BASIC Home Loan, who expects the central bank to maintain the status quo on rates as it assesses evolving global risks and domestic liquidity conditions.

Monga noted that while higher borrowing costs in recent years have weighed on housing affordability, especially in the mid-income and affordable segments, the recent phase of rate stability is beginning to ease pressure on borrowers.

"A continued pause or slight shift in policy stance can help revive housing demand and improve borrower sentiment," he said, highlighting that stable rates and better liquidity could further strengthen credit access in the housing market.

He also pointed to a structural shift in borrower behaviour, with increasing preference for digital and transparent lending platforms, which could benefit from a supportive policy environment.

Taken together, these views suggest that while the RBI may avoid immediate policy action, its guidance on liquidity, inflation and growth will be key in shaping market direction.

What Should Investors Expect Today?

The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices and strong global cues suggests a positive start for Indian markets.

However, the RBI’s policy announcement remains the key event risk.

In the near term, sectors sensitive to oil prices, such as aviation, paints and oil marketing companies, may react to the sharp decline in crude. Banking and financial stocks are also expected to be in focus ahead of the policy outcome.

Overall, while global developments have provided relief, the direction of Indian markets through the day will likely hinge on the RBI’s policy signals and guidance.

Will RBI Change Interest Rates Today? What To Expect From April MPC

ABP Live Business — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 08:19:11 +0530

With just hours to go before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces its April 2026 monetary policy decision, expectations are firmly tilted towards a pause. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its policy rates, even as rising crude oil prices and global uncertainties reshape the macroeconomic landscape.

According to a report by SBI Mutual Funds, the central bank is likely to rely more on liquidity management tools in 2026 rather than immediate rate action, signalling a cautious approach to evolving risks.

At the heart of this outlook is the sharp divergence between the RBI’s earlier assumptions and current market realities, reported IANS. Crude oil prices are now hovering roughly 50 per cent above the central bank’s baseline estimate of $70 per barrel, introducing fresh pressure on inflation and external balances. Despite this, the report suggests that the threshold for monetary tightening remains high.

Oil Shock But No Immediate Rate Hike

The surge in global energy prices has complicated the inflation outlook, yet policymakers appear reluctant to respond with aggressive rate hikes. The report underscores that even with crude trading significantly above assumptions, the RBI is unlikely to shift its stance abruptly.

This reflects a broader policy preference for stability, particularly at a time when global growth remains uneven and geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt commodity markets. Instead of reacting directly through interest rates, the central bank is expected to fine-tune liquidity conditions to absorb shocks and maintain financial stability.

Liquidity Tools In Focus

A key theme emerging from the report is the increasing importance of liquidity operations. With the balance of payments projected to remain under pressure in FY27, the RBI may turn to open market operations (OMOs) to sustain adequate liquidity in the banking system.

The report estimates that if the balance of payments deficit reaches Rs 3.5 trillion, the central bank may need to conduct additional OMO purchases worth Rs 4.5 trillion to Rs 5 trillion to maintain surplus liquidity conditions. This approach would allow the RBI to support credit flow and economic activity without altering benchmark rates.

Such a strategy also provides flexibility, enabling policymakers to respond dynamically to external shocks while avoiding abrupt shifts in borrowing costs.

Sectoral Winners And Losers

The evolving energy landscape is expected to create clear sectoral divergences. Metals and mining companies stand to benefit from elevated commodity prices, positioning them as relative winners in the current environment.

On the other hand, sectors that are highly sensitive to fuel costs, such as airlines, tourism, chemicals, fertilisers and textiles, are likely to face margin pressures. Rising input costs could weigh on profitability and demand in these segments.

Meanwhile, sectors such as information technology, telecom, pharmaceuticals and power are seen as relatively insulated from the immediate impact of higher energy prices, making them comparatively resilient in the current cycle.

Growth Outlook Moderates

Beyond sectoral trends, the report also points to a moderation in overall economic growth. Real GDP growth is projected to ease from an estimated 7.8 per cent in FY26 to around 6.5 per cent in FY27. This suggests that while the economy remains on a stable footing, momentum may soften amid global headwinds and domestic pressures.

At the same time, nominal GDP growth is expected to strengthen, rising from 9 per cent to approximately 12-13 per cent. This reflects the impact of higher prices across the economy, even as real growth moderates.

Inflation Risks Persist

Inflation remains a key concern for policymakers, particularly on the food front. The report highlights that food inflation could pose a greater risk due to an unfavourable base effect and potential weather-related disruptions during the Kharif season.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) is expected to average around 5 per cent in FY27, with certain months potentially approaching the 6 per cent mark. This places inflation close to the upper bound of the RBI’s comfort range, reinforcing the need for cautious policy calibration.

Markets Eye Energy Trends

From a market perspective, valuations, particularly in large-cap stocks, are seen as becoming increasingly attractive. The report suggests that any easing in energy prices could trigger a swift recovery in equities, potentially delivering early-teen returns for benchmark indices.

It also notes that if the current energy shock subsides, especially in the event of a geopolitical resolution such as an agreement between the US and Iran, the broader economic impact may prove temporary. In such a scenario, recent market corrections may have already priced in much of the downside risk.

Looking ahead, the report cautions that global markets may be entering a phase of more frequent geopolitical disruptions. This could lead to precautionary inventory build-ups and expansion of strategic reserves by countries, keeping crude oil prices elevated for longer periods.

IT Rules Row: Govt Says No New Powers, Deepfake Surge Behind Takedowns

PTI — Wed, 8 Apr 2026 00:46:23 +0530

New Delhi, Apr 7 (PTI): Takedown and blocking powers are already provided for under the existing provisions, and the proposed amendments to the IT rules are not linked to content takedown actions, MeitY Secretary S Krishnan said on Tuesday.

He said the proposed amendments do not give the government wider powers nor expand those, and are "merely clarificatory in nature".

Fielding a question on the significant rise in blocking action seen over the last three-four months, Krishnan attributed the increase to synthetically-generated content.

"There has been a sudden explosion across the board.... This is not to do with any one political party.... So, a sudden explosion of so-called 'deepfakes' has meant that further action has been taken," he said at a media briefing.

To a question on whether there will be a provision for giving specific reasons behind recent takedowns of certain posts, Krishnan asserted that "these changes (IT rule amendments) have nothing to do with what are the takedowns...." Takedowns happen under existing provisions, he said, adding that the two -- the IT rule amendments being proposed and the takedowns -- are not linked.

The trigger on the latest draft amendments relates to the request from law enforcement agencies (LEAs) on preservation of content and the suggestion from the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting that user-generated news and current affairs content should be dealt with by it and not the Meity, Krishnan said.

Platforms have told the IT ministry that obligations for intermediaries and news publishers need to be differentiated. They are "uncomfortable" with being held responsible for user-generated content, especially under rules designed for publishers.

"Those issues have been raised.... Intermediaries have pointed out in their representation this morning that they are uncomfortable with all this because the content is actually put out by a user, which is why the sharper a distinction between the way a user content will be dealt with and the news publisher content will be dealt with," Krishnan said.

In the present scheme of things, registered news publishers are called to inter-departmental committees, where they are asked to modify specific content.

"In that framework, it is fine because the publisher is the same person who is putting it out. Now, when the intermediary appears, in certain cases, you may not even have the original user appearing. In certain cases, maybe the user will come.... In that case, the intermediary cannot direct or cannot make those changes.... So those amendments or those modifications have been pointed out to us, and we will examine," Krishnan said, adding that the intent is not to treat the two in the same manner.

It is pertinent to mention that the debate around social media takedowns has intensified in the last months, particularly following instances where certain parody, satire and spoof posts were either removed or flagged across platforms -- critics allege that such takedown and arbitrary blocking raises concerns over free speech and overreach.

Advocacy groups also argue that content, intended at humour, have at times been clubbed under stricter enforcement actions, raising questions on how platforms and authorities distinguish between misinformation and satire.

Amid a public outcry over the draft IT rules amendments that, among other changes, propose to bring independent news creators on the Centre's radar and mandate platforms' compliance with advisories and SOPs, the MeitY on Tuesday met social media intermediaries and civil society groups to hear their concerns, with Krishnan later asserting that the ministry is "open" to suggestions.

Meanwhile, the Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF) reiterated that the amendments should be scrapped entirely. It argued that the proposals could enable opaque censorship and violate principles of natural justice under the Information Technology Act, 2000.

"We submitted, in brief, that the modifications indicated at the meeting do not fundamentally alter the illegality or the censorial impact of the proposed changes. We grounded this position in the framework of the Information Technology Act, 2000, and in the existing patterns of opaque censorship under the Rules that operate without any meaningful adherence to the principles of natural justice," the IFF said in a post on X.

The digital advocacy group has reiterated its demand for a complete withdrawal of the proposed amendments and substantially-greater transparency in the rule-making process going forward.

The IFF rued that the civil society participation in Tuesday's meeting was sparse, with only three to four organisations in the room.

"This speaks to the gradual erosion of capacity and shrinking number of civil society organisations in India that work on digital rights," it said. PTI MBI RC

(Disclaimer: This report has been published as part of the auto-generated syndicate wire feed. Apart from the headline, no editing has been done in the copy by ABP Live.)

8th Pay Commission: When Will Employees Get Hike? April 13 Meet To Finalise Demands

ABP Live Business — Tue, 7 Apr 2026 18:22:37 +0530

The drafting committee of the National Council (Joint Consultative Machinery) (NC-JCM), which represents central government employees and pensioners, is set to meet on April 13 to finalise its memorandum for the 8th Pay Commission. The development comes as lakhs of employees await clarity on revised salaries, pensions and allowances under the new pay panel. The meeting is expected to play a crucial role in shaping recommendations that will be submitted to the Commission, marking a key step in the ongoing consultation process over the much-anticipated pay revision.

Key Meeting

The April 13 meeting of the NC-JCM drafting committee will focus on finalising the memorandum that outlines demands from central government employees and pensioners. This document will serve as a formal submission to the 8th Pay Commission, highlighting expectations on salary revisions, pension restructuring and changes in allowances.

The NC-JCM acts as a key interface between employee bodies and the government, making its recommendations significant in influencing the Commission’s deliberations. The meeting comes at a time when employee unions have been actively engaging with authorities to ensure their concerns are reflected in the new pay framework.

What Employees Can Expect

The 8th Pay Commission is expected to revise salaries with effect from January 1, 2026, although the actual rollout may take time. The Commission typically takes several months to prepare its report, after which the government reviews and approves the recommendations.

If there is a delay in implementation, employees are likely to receive arrears for the intervening period. Apart from basic pay, revisions are also expected in pensions and various allowances, which could significantly impact take-home income and retirement benefits.

The upcoming meeting is therefore seen as a crucial milestone in the process, as it will shape the demands that form the basis of discussions with the Commission, keeping millions of employees and pensioners closely watching the outcome.