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OPINION | BrahMos Diplomacy: How India’s Supersonic Missile Is Reshaping Asian Geopolitics

Dr Prosenjit Nath — Tue, 12 May 2026 08:32:33 +0530

The growing global interest in the BrahMos missile marks a defining moment in India’s rise as a serious defence exporter and strategic power. Vietnam’s ongoing negotiations with India for a reported US$700 million BrahMos deal are not merely about weapons procurement; they represent a larger geopolitical shift taking shape across Asia and beyond. As countries increasingly seek alternatives to Western defence systems and attempt to counter China’s expanding military influence, India’s missile diplomacy is emerging as a powerful instrument of strategic outreach.

For decades, India was seen largely as one of the world’s biggest importers of defence equipment. Russian tanks, French fighter jets, Israeli drones and American helicopters formed the backbone of India’s military inventory. But the BrahMos story signals the beginning of a reversal. India is no longer just a consumer of global military technology; it is becoming a producer and exporter of high-end strategic systems capable of influencing regional security equations.

The interest from Vietnam, following the Philippines and Indonesia, demonstrates how Southeast Asia increasingly views India as a credible security partner. This is deeply connected to the changing balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. China’s aggressive maritime posture in the South China Sea, repeated military coercion against smaller neighbours, and expanding naval footprint have compelled many ASEAN states to strengthen deterrence capabilities. The BrahMos fits precisely into that requirement.

Unlike subsonic cruise missiles such as the American Tomahawk, BrahMos travels at speeds exceeding Mach 3. Its low-altitude flight profile and extraordinary velocity drastically reduce enemy reaction time. In modern warfare, speed is survival. Air defence systems that may track a missile often fail to intercept it because the engagement window becomes too narrow. This technological edge has transformed BrahMos into one of the most feared cruise missile systems in the world today.

However, technology alone does not explain the sudden surge in global interest. What truly altered perceptions was its combat validation during Operation Sindoor. The missile’s successful use against defended targets in Pakistan fundamentally changed how international defence establishments viewed the system. Military hardware acquires a different credibility once it has been tested in actual combat conditions. A missile proven in wartime carries psychological value beyond brochures and military exhibitions.

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This explains why nations from Southeast Asia to the Middle East and Latin America are now studying possible acquisitions. Countries such as Thailand, Singapore, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Brazil reportedly see BrahMos as an attractive option because it combines deterrence capability with political flexibility. Unlike Western systems, BrahMos does not come wrapped in intrusive geopolitical conditions, human rights lectures or alliance obligations. It offers buyers strategic autonomy.

That factor is becoming increasingly important in a fragmented global order. The Russia-Ukraine war exposed the dangers of overdependence on a single supplier bloc. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding long-term American commitments in different regions has made several countries rethink defence procurement strategies. Many governments now seek diversified military partnerships to avoid strategic vulnerability. India benefits from this transition because it occupies a unique geopolitical position: friendly with the West, historically connected to Russia, and independent in foreign policy orientation.

The BrahMos joint venture itself reflects this hybrid strategic identity. Developed through cooperation between India’s DRDO and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya, the missile stands outside NATO-centric defence supply chains. This gives potential buyers greater room for manoeuvre without appearing trapped within Western military architecture.

For India, the implications are enormous. Defence exports are not just commercial transactions; they create long-term strategic relationships. Countries that purchase missiles also require maintenance, training, upgrades and operational integration for decades. This builds institutional military ties that strengthen diplomatic influence. India’s discussions with Vietnam regarding maintenance support for Russian-origin Su-30 fighter jets and Kilo-class submarines further illustrate how defence cooperation can evolve into deeper strategic alignment.

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This expanding military partnership network directly strengthens India’s “Act East” policy. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has steadily attempted to move beyond symbolic engagement with Southeast Asia toward substantive strategic cooperation. BrahMos exports now provide a hard-power dimension to that policy. They allow India to position itself as a stabilising regional force capable of contributing to the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.

There is also a powerful domestic dimension to this story. The success of BrahMos validates India’s push for defence indigenisation under the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” framework. For decades, critics questioned whether India could ever produce globally competitive military technology. BrahMos has answered that question emphatically. Export revenues crossing hundreds of millions of dollars indicate that India’s defence manufacturing sector is gradually becoming internationally relevant.

Yet India must also proceed carefully. Expanding arms exports inevitably increases geopolitical responsibilities. China will closely monitor every BrahMos deployment in Southeast Asia. Pakistan will continue to portray India’s missile exports as destabilising. Moreover, maintaining supply reliability, production scale and technological superiority will be essential if India wants to sustain credibility in the fiercely competitive global arms market.

Still, the broader trajectory is unmistakable. BrahMos is no longer merely a missile system in India’s arsenal. It has become a symbol of India’s strategic transformation. It represents technological confidence, geopolitical ambition and the emergence of India as a defence-industrial power capable of shaping regional security outcomes.

In many ways, the missile’s rise mirrors India’s own aspirations. Fast, assertive and increasingly difficult to ignore, BrahMos signals that India is entering a new phase in world politics not just as a balancing power, but as a nation capable of exporting both security and influence.

OPINION | Gold, Fuel And Sacrifice: Is Modi Preparing India For A Long Economic War?

Ashutosh Kumar Thakur — Tue, 12 May 2026 08:20:23 +0530

There is a distinct, almost rhythmic quality to the Prime Minister’s recent appeals, a blend of paternalistic counsel and high-stakes economic mobilisation. When Narendra Modi speaks of gold, or the digital ether of "Work from Home," he isn’t merely suggesting lifestyle adjustments. He is sketching the outlines of a new national discipline. His recent exhortation to the Indian citizenry, to pause the quintessential wedding season gold rush for a year, is less a decree and more a strategic manoeuvre in a global game of chess where the board is warped by war, and the pieces are priced in foreign exchange.

To understand this appeal, one must look beyond the immediate glitter of the jewellery box. India’s relationship with gold is not merely aesthetic. It is an ancestral obsession that doubles as a massive drain on the national exchequer. By framing the purchase of gold as an act of national responsibility, the Prime Minister is attempting to pivot the Indian psyche from private hoarding to public solvency. It is a bold, perhaps even audacious, request in a country where the yellow metal is the primary currency of social contract and familial security.

The Return to the Virtual Bastion

The Prime Minister’s call to resurrect the digital habits of the pandemic era, including video conferences, online meetings, and the remote work architecture, signals a realisation that the "Corona period" was not just a medical emergency. It was a forced laboratory for efficiency.

As the Prime Minister noted, the need of the hour is to restart those practices in the national interest. This is not a nostalgic look back at the lockdowns. It is a hard-nosed recognition of the current global friction. By leveraging a crisis of supply to enforce a culture of conservation, the state seeks to dampen the insatiable thirst for imported fuel.

The mathematics of the current moment is brutal. Petrol and diesel prices have become the heavy anchors of global inflation. For a nation like India, which imports the vast majority of its crude oil, every kilometre saved in a commute is a micro victory for the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign exchange reserves. It is a strategic trade, asking the citizen to choose the digital screen over the physical office to protect the nation's balance of payments.

The Ghost in the Supply Chain

The backdrop to these appeals is the major supply chain crisis, a phrase that has become the ubiquitous ghost in the global machine. The Ukraine conflict has not just disrupted the flow of wheat or gas; it has fractured the very logic of globalisation that India has relied upon for decades.

The Prime Minister’s mention of the fertiliser subsidy is perhaps the most visceral example of this disruption. To the casual observer, the gap between a ₹3,000 global price tag and a ₹300 domestic cost for a bag of fertiliser is a statistic. To the political economist, it is a staggering fiscal burden borne by the state to insulate the agrarian heartland from the shocks of a distant war. This is the shield the government has built over the last half-decade, a massive and expensive buffer meant to prevent global volatility from sparking domestic unrest.

The Hyderabad Horizon and Development as a Dialogue

Amidst these macroeconomic warnings, the Prime Minister’s focus on Hyderabad serves as a vital counterpoint. It is an assertion that even as the nation's belt tightens, the engine of infrastructure must not stall. The foundation stones laid for projects worth thousands of crores in the city are presented as proof of an unwavering commitment to a developed India.

In the texture of Indian politics, such developmental rhetoric often serves to bridge the gap between regional aspirations and central mandates. By aligning the progress of a high-tech hub like Hyderabad with the national strategic interest, the Prime Minister is pitching a unified vision. He sees a country that works from home to save fuel and pauses its gold buying to save forex, but continues to build its cities at the same speed as the developed world.

The Power of the Appeal

When we look through an analytical lens that finds the human heartbeat inside the cold ribs of policy, we see a leader testing the limits of his moral capital. Asking an Indian family to forgo gold for a wedding is not a request for a small sacrifice. It is a request for a cultural paradigm shift. It is an attempt to redefine national interest from something the government does to something the citizen is. The Prime Minister is using the pulpit to weave a narrative where the act of logging into a digital call or choosing a floral garland over a gold necklace becomes a patriotic contribution to the war against global economic instability.

Authentic Realities and the Fragile Balance

However, the holistic view must also acknowledge the fragility of this balance. While the fertiliser subsidy protects the farmer today, the long-term sustainability of such massive state interventions depends entirely on the very foreign exchange the Prime Minister is so keen to save.

The Ukraine war shows no signs of an early exit, and the supply chain crisis is less a temporary hurdle and more a permanent redesign of global trade. India’s strategy, as articulated in these recent statements, is one of resilient austerity. It is a recognition that the old ways of consumption are no longer compatible with the new world of scarcity.

The New National Discipline

Ultimately, the Prime Minister’s message is a call for a new national discipline. It is a realisation that the developed status India seeks cannot be bought with imported gold or fueled by expensive foreign oil. It must be built through internal efficiency, digital agility, and a collective willingness to defer gratification for the sake of the sovereign.

As the nation navigates this major supply chain crisis, the success of the government’s roadmap will depend not just on the foundation stones laid in Hyderabad, but on whether the people of India accept the invitation to sacrifice. In the theatre of Indian democracy, the Prime Minister has set the stage. The audience, with their gold-less weddings and their home offices, is now being asked to become the lead actors in the struggle for economic sovereignty.

Ashutosh Kumar Thakur writes on politics, society, literature, arts and environment, reflecting on the shared histories and cultures of South Asia.

[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]

OPINION | Is Your Mother's Day Gift Secretly Telling Her To Stay In The Kitchen?

Annie Sharma — Sun, 10 May 2026 15:04:38 +0530

Mother's Day is finally here, and if you've been online for even five minutes, you already know the drill: brands get sentimental, florists get greedy, and everyone suddenly loves their mother very, very publicly. As a journalist, every Mother's Day, my inbox floods with brands pitching their products for a listicle feature.

So I finally sat down and went through all of them, and guess what? Vacuum cleaners, roti makers, mops. Every single year, without fail. I have seen it enough to not be shocked anymore. And then a simple pamphlet tucked inside a food delivery order pushed me over the edge, and made me think about how little has actually changed in the way we see mothers.

A Pamphlet That Said Everything Wrong

It was supposed to be a regular order from Bistro: coffee, fries, the usual morning ritual with colleagues.

When the delivery arrived, we found a pamphlet tucked inside, a big, cheerful roti printed across it, with the words "Maa ke haath ki choti si roti" staring right back at us. And look, I understand the assignment. It's warm, it's nostalgic, it's very on-brand for Mother's Day. But something about it just sat wrong with me.

I mean, if you really want to capture the full spirit of a desi mother, maybe print a chappal on that pamphlet instead."Maa ke haath ki chappal if you ordered junk again" would have been just as iconic, and at least it would have made us laugh.

Bistro is not alone here. Every brand seems to be reading from the same script. Vacuum cleaners. Roti makers. Mops. Dishwashers. Different packaging, same message.

Nobody is out here being deliberately tone-deaf, but when every brand's idea of honouring mothers circles back to the kitchen and the cleaning cabinet, it stops feeling like a celebration and starts feeling like a reminder of exactly where women supposedly belong.

And brands do not make this up. They just reflect what we have always believed, that a woman's place is in the kitchen, and her greatest gift is the labour she does there.

The Pedestal Is Just A Prettier Cage

Putting mothers on a pedestal sounds like respect. But if you look closely, it is really just a more poetic way of keeping them in one place. And the uncomfortable truth is that patriarchy is so deeply embedded in our society that even women have internalised it without realising.

It does not always show up as something loud and obvious. Sometimes it is as quiet as an aunty dismissing your period pain with "humne bhi to saha hai", women policing other women's pain because they were once told to swallow their own. It is everywhere, once you start looking.

Just open Instagram, scroll through a woman's reel, and there it is in the comments, "go back to the kitchen." An insult dressed as a joke, typed by men and sometimes even women, as if the kitchen is where she belongs and the internet is where she is trespassing.

So when brands roll out Mother's Day campaigns built entirely around appliances and chores, they are not doing something new. They are just doing the same thing in nicer packaging.

I am not against home chores; I do them myself. But wrapping a mop in a ribbon and calling it a celebration is not honouring your mother. It is just telling her, very sweetly, to stay exactly where she is.

So maybe next Mother's Day, brands can do better, and so can we. Skip the vacuum cleaner. Skip the roti maker. Gift her a smartwatch, book her a massage, take her out for a meal where she doesn't have to cook or clean up after. Let her laugh, let her rest, let her just exist outside of her responsibilities for one single day. Because 'Maa ke haath ki roti' is not her identity. She is.

OPINION | Why Did Adm. Tripathi Visit Myanmar?

Ranjit Kumar — Sun, 10 May 2026 14:17:11 +0530

Admiral Dinesh Tripathi, the Indian chief of naval staff, paid a significant visit to Myanmar from May 2-5, coinciding with a critical period for the newly established government, which is largely composed of former Generals operating under a civilian guise. This government remains under sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. In contrast, China and Russia have continued to strengthen their defence ties with the Myanmar junta, providing substantial military support despite Myanmar's isolation from the international community following the 2021 coup that ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

While international sanctions have had little impact, India has opted for a pragmatic approach, maintaining discreet working relations with the Myanmar military regime. High-level interactions have persisted, including bi-annual defence dialogues and the exchange of senior military officials. Notably, Indian Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane visited Myanmar in May 2023, further solidifying these ties. Last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the Myanmar junta, during the Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Tianjin, China. Indian naval Chief’s visit to Myanmar took place in the backdrop of Myanmar's recent elections, which have been criticized as lacking genuine democratic processes. India's engagement with Myanmar reflects a strategic balancing act, navigating regional dynamics while addressing its own security interests.

In light of the newly established civilian government in Myanmar, India has seized the opportunity to strengthen diplomatic ties by facilitating a visit from Indian Naval Chief Admiral Tripathi, marking the first such visit in a decade. The last Indian Navy Chief to visit Myanmar was Admiral Sunil Lanba in 2016, followed by Army Chief General Bipin Rawat's visit the following year. This recent engagement underscores India's commitment to enhancing naval and defence cooperation with Myanmar, aligning with its broader Act East policy aimed at fostering regional stability and collaboration.

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During his visit to Naypyitaw, Admiral Tripathi engaged in discussions with key military figures, including Myanmar's Defence Minister, General U Htun Aung, the Commander of the Armed Forces, General Ye Win Oo and Chief of the Navy, Admiral Htein Win. The talks centered on strategies to bolster maritime security in the Bay of Bengal, emphasizing the importance of advancing naval engagements between the two nations. The dialogue also highlighted initiatives for capacity building, training exchanges, improving interoperability, and hydrographic surveys etc which are crucial for effective collaboration in maritime operations.

Both India and Myanmar have a history of conducting joint maritime exercises and coordinated patrols in the Bay of Bengal, and the deepening of naval cooperation is anticipated to enhance India's strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific region. According to a statement from the Indian defence ministry, this visit serves to reaffirm the enduring bonds of friendship between India and Myanmar, founded on mutual respect, trust, and a shared commitment to ensuring maritime security and stability in the Indian Ocean Region. Myanmar has also participated in all recent events conducted by Indian navy such as Indian Ocean Naval Symposium , MILAN, Goa Maritime Conclave etc. This partnership not only strengthens bilateral relations but also contributes to the overall security architecture of the region.

India has faced criticism for its arms sales to the Myanmar junta, although these transactions are minimal compared to the substantial military support provided by China and Russia, which amounts to over billion dollar. In 2020, during the civilian government led by Aung San Su Kyi, India gifted the Kilo-class submarine INS Sindhuvir to Myanmar, a strategic gesture aimed at bolstering maritime security in the Bay of Bengal. However, following the military coup, Myanmar's junta increasingly aligned itself with China, diminishing the strategic significance of India's submarine donation.

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A UN report from May 2023 indicated that Indian public sector companies, such as Bharat Dynamics and Bharat Electronics, have supplied arms to Myanmar valued at approximately USD 51 million. The intent behind these arms sales appears to be rooted in India's desire to maintain a foothold in Myanmar, particularly in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape. The new civilian government in Myanmar is now seeking recognition from the United States and aims to expand its diplomatic relations while balancing its ties with China and Russia.

India has three primary concerns that it hopes to address through cooperation with the Myanmar regime. Firstly, India seeks assistance in neutralizing northeast rebel groups that operate within Myanmar, as the two countries share a lengthy border of about 1,700 kms. Developments in Myanmar directly affect India's border regions, making peace and stability in the country, along with the well-being of its citizens, a top priority for India.

Key challenges include advancing the Kaladan multi-modal transit transport project and operationalizing the Kolkata-Bangkok trilateral highway. The Kaladan project, a strategic initiative developed collaboratively by India and Myanmar since the early 2000s, aims to enhance connectivity between India’s eastern ports and Myanmar’s Sitwe port. This initiative facilitates cargo movement to India’s northeastern region by integrating road, river, and sea transport, thereby reducing reliance on the narrow Siliguri corridor and promoting regional trade and economic activities. The project is expected to benefit both nations, bolstering India’s Act East Policy and strengthening bilateral trade relations.

The trilateral highway, however, faces operational challenges in Myanmar due to ongoing security instability. Once active, this highway has the potential to significantly enhance India’s connectivity with ASEAN member states, fostering deeper trade, tourism, and economic relations. India has made substantial investments in this infrastructure, including the construction of 160 kms of road within Myanmar, starting from the Moreh border in Manipur.

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The recent identification of significant rare earth deposits in northern Myanmar has attracted the interest of global powers. China has already secured access to several mines, while reports indicate that Myanmar's civilian government, seeking recognition from the United States, has communicated its intentions to Washington and engaged a lobbying firm to advocate for its interests.

Given China's attempts to strengthen ties with the Myanmar Junta through arms supplies and its pursuit of extensive mining rights for petroleum and mineral resources, it is crucial for India to assert its presence in the region. Maintaining a constructive relationship with the current government is essential for safeguarding India's strategic interests. Myanmar can play a vital role in India's "neighbourhood first" policy, and a stable, cooperative regime could not only enhance the development of India's northeastern region but also contribute significantly to the effectiveness of India's Act East and Indo-pacific Policy, as Myanmar can prove to be a vital bridge between India and South East Asian countries.

(The writer is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)

OPINION | Delhi Must Listen To Ladakh's Demands, Ignoring Can Prove Costly

Nayanima Basu — Thu, 7 May 2026 16:30:30 +0530

Ladakh, a region renowned for its breathtaking landscapes and rich cultural heritage, is currently at the forefront of a significant political movement advocating for its rights and autonomy. The people of Ladakh are fervently demanding full statehood, the establishment of a legislative assembly, and inclusion in the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution. These demands arise from a deep-seated representation deficit and the necessity to safeguard the region's unique tribal culture, land, and natural resources.

Since its bifurcation from Jammu & Kashmir in 2019, Ladakh has faced a notable shift in governance; crucial decisions that affect the local populace are now made by central bureaucrats, rather than by representatives from the region. This shift has sparked widespread protests led by the Leh Apex Body (LAB) and the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA). Following its transition to a Union Territory (UT) without a legislative assembly, Ladakh lost its four elected Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) that were previously part of the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly, a change that has fuelled dissatisfaction among residents.

The reorganisation of Ladakh came about as a result of the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act in August 2019. The region’s population, predominantly comprising over 90 percent Scheduled Tribes, is now advocating for a local assembly. They argue that self-governance and accountability are essential, as decisions impacting their lives should be made by locally elected representatives instead of distant central authorities. Additionally, by seeking protection under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, Ladakhis hope to gain autonomy through the establishment of District Councils, which would possess legislative powers over vital areas such as land management, forest usage, and local administration. This would also serve as a preventative measure against an influx of outsiders that could alter the delicate social fabric of the region.

Since last year, protests in an otherwise peaceful and quaint Ladakh have gained momentum, with fervent demonstrations reflecting the people's resolve. On March 16, 2026, this fervour was palpable as thousands of residents participated in a complete shutdown, accompanied by massive rallies in both Leh and Kargil. The gathering, spearheaded by the Leh Apex Body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance, underscores a resilient community united in their quest for full statehood, a local legislative assembly, and the critical inclusion in the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution.

In September 24, 2025, the movement saw a significant escalation in late 2025 following a hunger strike by environmentalist and activist Sonam Wangchuk. Protests in Leh turned violent, resulting in the torching of the BJP office, police firing that killed four people, and the arrest of over 60 activists. In addition to the four deaths, between 50 and 90 people were injured, including at least 30 security personnel. Eventually, on September 26, Wanghcuk was arrested and detained under the National Security Act (NSA).

Wangchuk was released on March 14, 2026, after 170 days in Jodhpur Central Jail. The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) revoked the detention order to "foster peace and stability" and encourage dialogue in the region. Upon his release, Wangchuk attributed the detention to "linguistic misunderstandings" and "excessive interpretation" of his speeches by authorities. Tensions, however, continue to remain high in Ladakh, often referred to as the ‘Land of High Passes’, even as local leaders, representatives of the youth organisations as well as monks and nuns talk of holding protests again. In fact, they are now talking of continuing their “revolution” if New Delhi continues to ignore their demands.

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The demand for UT status in Ladakh began in the 1980s. Continued unrest with the state government in Jammu and Kashmir and the national government in Delhi pushed many to ask for autonomy. The compromise with the national government resulted in the formation of the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council. Formation of the council has raised hopes with the Ladakhis that eventually they will be able to govern their own land. However, with limited powers, the objective of the Council to achieve genuine autonomy as a UT continues to remain elusive. Prior to becoming a UT, which is now headed by a Lieutenant-Governor, the administration was managed by two District-Magistrate-cum Development Commissioners, each deployed in Leh and Kargil.

However, in the present times, to manage the same administration, nearly a dozen IAS and IPS officers have been deployed. The Leh Apex body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA) have been at loggerheads with the Centre voicing the demands of the local population. The Centre, on the other hand, has largely resisted granting full statehood or the Sixth Schedule, citing Ladakh's strategic importance as a buffer zone bordering China and Pakistan. However, in order to soothe nerves, the Centre introduced the Ladakh Reservation Regulation, 2025, which provides an 85 percent quota for locals in government jobs based on a 15-year residency requirement. New Delhi has also made a proposal to grant Article 371-like protections in lieu of the Sixth Schedule.

Article 371 provides special provisions to specific states to address regional imbalances, protect local culture, and ensure equitable development. While the government has proposed Article 371-type protections for Ladakh as a more flexible alternative to the Sixth Schedule, local leaders remain firm on their demand for a full legislature and Sixth Schedule status for stronger legislative autonomy.

During his two-day visit to Leh on April 30-May 1, Home Minister Amit Shah met Wangchuk, Chering Dorjay Lakrook, former minister and co-convener of the Leh Apex Body (LAB) and a few other leaders from LAB and KDA but their key proposals were rejected and no major breakthroughs were reached regarding their demands. This was Shah’s maiden visit to Ladakh since it became UT. The talks are expected to resume on 22 May in New Delhi. This is a crucial moment for New Delhi to address Ladakh's demands to prevent instability and further escalation of tensions in a region vital to India's national security, especially given its borders with China and Pakistan. Additionally, the government cannot afford to have another border region fraught with tensions; a peaceful Ladakh would always be a more favourable situation for India.

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Nayanima Basu is a senior independent journalist.

Law And Order Decline, Muslim Vote Assumptions: TMC’s Setback Explained

Sayantan Ghosh — Tue, 5 May 2026 22:08:59 +0530

In the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a landslide victory with 207 seats, reducing the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) to around 80 seats and ending its 15-year rule under Mamata Banerjee. This outcome marks a historic shift: the first time a right-of-centre party has formed the government in the state since provincial elections began in 1937. Voter turnout reached a record 92.93%, reflecting deep public engagement and pent-up frustration.

The result was not merely an electoral defeat but a silent storm of accumulated grievances. Women, long a core TMC constituency, turned away in significant numbers due to perceived failures in safety and justice. Urban middle classes and rural voters alike expressed exhaustion with governance failures.

The TMC’s reliance on administrative control, local muscle, and vote-bank politics backfired as anti-incumbency peaked. Key triggers included the RG Kar medical college incident, widespread allegations of syndicate raj and cut-money culture, deteriorating law and order, and the erosion of support even among Muslims who had been taken for granted.

These factors converged to dismantle the party’s once-formidable grassroots machinery. What follows is an analysis of the core reasons behind this dramatic reversal.

RG Kar Incident: TMC’s Role Under Scrutiny

The August 2024 rape and murder of a postgraduate trainee doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Medical College and Hospital became a watershed moment. The brutal crime, followed by allegations of institutional cover-up, vandalism of the protest site by alleged TMC-linked miscreants, and the swift reappointment of the college principal (facing corruption charges) to another post, ignited sustained protests.

Doctors demanded justice, and ordinary citizens, particularly women, joined “Reclaim the Night” marches, highlighting systemic failures in women’s safety.

The TMC government’s response-initial police handling, resistance to full transparency, and perceived protection of influential figures-fuelled perceptions of impunity.

Even after the main accused received a life sentence, public anger persisted because broader questions about hospital administration, political interference in medical institutions, and a “North Bengal lobby” allegedly close to the party remained unaddressed.

This incident resonated far beyond Kolkata, affecting rural and semi-urban areas where women voters weighed personal security against earlier welfare schemes.

In the elections, this translated into a visible shift. The victim’s mother contesting from Panihati symbolised how the case became a direct political battleground against a TMC citadel.

Women’s safety concerns, amplified by other incidents like those in Sandeshkhali, eroded the TMC’s traditional edge among female voters. Urban professionals and students, already frustrated with job scarcity, saw the episode as emblematic of deeper governance decay.

The protests weakened the party’s cadre dominance in public spaces and exposed cracks even in its organizational strongholds.

Losing Touch With People

After its 2011 victory on the promise of “Ma, Mati, Manush” and subsequent consolidation post-2016, the TMC under Mamata Banerjee increasingly centralised power. The party’s operations shifted from organic mass contact to controlling police, administration, and local institutions.

This top-down approach distanced leadership from everyday concerns like unemployment, migration for jobs, and crumbling infrastructure.

Schemes such as cash transfers and Duare Sarkar (government at doorstep) initially built loyalty but showed diminishing returns as aspirations grew.

Youth migration continued unabated, and industrial revival remained elusive amid frequent Centre-state tensions. The TMC’s reliance on bureaucracy and police to manage politics created an image of an insulated regime, out of sync with ground realities.

By 2026, this hubris-evident in post-2021 assertions of dominance-mirrored the Left’s 2006 overconfidence that preceded its decline.

Voters across demographics noted the absence of genuine engagement. Rural areas, once loyal due to welfare outreach, felt neglected as local TMC functionaries prioritised control over service delivery.

Urban voters, hit by economic stagnation, viewed the party as more focused on retaining power than addressing civic issues. This gradual alienation turned silent discontent into a decisive rejection.

Goons, Corruption And Syndicate Raj

One of the most visceral reasons for TMC’s rout was its entrenched culture of extortion and muscle power. “Syndicate raj”-where local TMC-affiliated groups allegedly controlled everything from construction materials to public works, demanding “cut money” (commissions)-permeated daily life.

Reports and public discourse highlighted how no sector operated without bribes or middlemen linked to the party.

Atrocities by local goons, including land grabs, threats to businesses, and suppression of dissent, created widespread fear. Post-poll violence complaints from previous cycles lingered in public memory, reinforcing narratives of lawlessness.

Corruption scandals in recruitment, education, and health sectors compounded the damage. Even welfare schemes reportedly suffered deductions at the local level, alienating beneficiaries.

This underbelly eroded the TMC’s moral authority. Businessmen, small contractors, and common citizens alike suffered, fostering resentment that cut across caste and community lines.

In 2026, voters prioritised ending this “jungle raj” over continuity, viewing BJP as a cleaner alternative despite its own challenges. The party’s failure to curb its local excesses proved fatal.

Muslim Vote Assumptions, Law And Order Slide

The TMC had long banked on solid Muslim support, which helped it gain power in 2011 and sustain it. Over time, however, this constituency was taken for granted.

Limited representation in key institutions (e.g., police force percentages stagnating or declining) and perceptions of uneven development fueled quiet disillusionment.

In 2026, Muslim votes fragmented toward the Left-ISF alliance, Congress, and smaller parties like AJUP, spoiling TMC prospects in several marginal seats and enabling BJP gains even in Muslim-dominated areas.

Compounding this was the broader collapse of law and order. Sandeshkhali highlighted issues of alleged sexual violence and land encroachment by TMC leaders.

Infiltration concerns, attacks on officials, and frequent clashes portrayed a state where ordinary citizens felt unsafe. The Election Commission’s interventions, including transfers and voter list revisions, underscored governance breakdowns, though TMC contested them.

High turnout reflected a collective desire for change amid this perceived anarchy.

Together, these elements-symbolised by RG Kar, systemic rot, and demographic-political miscalculations-created an unstoppable anti-incumbency wave.

The TMC’s 15-year rule, once defined by resilience against the Left, ended in silence as voters chose accountability over familiarity.

Bengal’s new chapter begins with immense expectations for restoring order, jobs, and trust. Whether the BJP delivers remains to be seen, but the mandate was unambiguous: the storm had broken.

Sayantan Ghosh teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata. He is on X as @sayantan_gh.

OPINION | India Fuels Bangladesh Nuclear Ambitions

Ranjit Kumar — Sat, 2 May 2026 14:14:49 +0530

The commencement of the uranium fuel loading process at Bangladesh's first nuclear power plant in Rooppur, located approximately 160 kms from Dhaka, marks a significant achievement in the country's aspirations to become a nuclear power. This development is particularly noteworthy as India is set to play a crucial role in the operation of this ambitious project, especially in light of the recent efforts to mend relations following the political changes that led to the ousting of the Hasina administration. The Rooppur plant, which is designed to generate 1,200 megawatts of electricity through two units, is being constructed by Russia, with initial agreements established in 2011 and construction officially beginning in 2017.

Recognizing the challenges associated with operating the plant exclusively with Russian personnel, Bangladesh has entered into a trilateral agreement with both Russia and India. This partnership not only encompasses the supply of non-nuclear components for the facility but also includes the deployment of Indian technicians and workers who possess specialized expertise in managing similar VVER-1200 type nuclear power plants. Notably, these Indian professionals have experience from the VVER-1000 type nuclear power plant currently operational in Kalpakkam, India, which further enhances their capability to contribute effectively to the Rooppur project.

The decision by Bangladesh to engage India in this trilateral cooperation transcends mere symbolism; it represents a vital functional alliance that is poised to bolster India's strategic heft in the region. This collaboration serves as a precedent for other nations aspiring to develop nuclear capabilities but lacking sufficient domestic qualified personnel, encouraging them to seek assistance from Indian nuclear experts. Under the terms of this trilateral partnership, India will assume the role of a technical mentor, thereby facilitating knowledge transfer and operational support that will be essential for the successful functioning of the Rooppur nuclear power plant.

The nuclear sector is highly sensitive in the realm of international diplomacy and security, making the decision by the Bangladeshi government in 2018 particularly noteworthy. This move came at a time when relations between India and Bangladesh were flourishing under the leadership of the Awami League, headed by Sheikh Hasina, who is currently in exile in India. New Delhi viewed this initiative as an opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties further, especially as the new government in Dhaka aims to normalize its relationship with India. India's willingness to provide trained personnel for the efficient operation of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant is expected to enhance mutual trust and cooperation.

Collaboration in the nuclear sector hinges on mutual trust and amicable relations, and the Rooppur plant is anticipated to foster goodwill between the two nations and their peoples. The two units of the plant are projected to meet ten percent of Bangladesh's electricity needs, thereby playing a crucial role in the country's energy security. The tripartite agreement outlines provisions for technical assistance related to the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, including knowledge transfer, consultancy, and support in regulatory matters to ensure safe and efficient operations. This partnership will also facilitate Bangladesh's ability to attract qualified Indian professionals and institutions with expertise in the construction, commissioning, and operation of complex industrial facilities. By sharing resources and experiences, both nations can work together to ensure the successful implementation of the Rooppur project, ultimately contributing to a more secure and sustainable energy future for Bangladesh.

The nuclear power plant (NPP) in Bangladesh, which has a total projected capacity of 2400 MW, is set to commence production with an initial output of 300 MW by the end of August. Prior to the March, 2018 tripartite agreement, both neighbours had concluded a bilateral agreement in April 2017 , which focused on cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Bangladesh is permitted to construct and operate the nuclear facility under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Given the country's limited pool of technically qualified personnel to manage a nuclear power plant, it is logical for Dhaka to seek assistance from India. This collaboration underscores the strength of bilateral relations, as India boasts over fifty years of experience in the construction, maintenance, and operation of nuclear power plants, along with a well-trained workforce in various aspects of nuclear technology.

Currently, Indian private sector thermal power companies are supplying electricity to Bangladesh's power grid, and the nation is looking to enhance its reliance on nuclear energy in the future. With this latest achievement, Bangladesh is poised to become the third nuclear power-generating country in South Asia, following India and Pakistan, and will join an exclusive group of 30 nations worldwide. This milestone reflects Bangladesh's commitment to meeting its energy demands through nuclear fuel, marking a significant step in its energy strategy.

The Russian government is set to invest approximately USD 12.60 billion in the construction of a 2400 MW nuclear power plant, utilizing its latest reactor technology, which is recognized as one of the safest and most efficient in the world. In contrast, China's involvement in Pakistan's nuclear sector, where it has supplied several reactors, has led to a situation where operations are predominantly managed by Chinese technicians. For India, the fact that Bangladesh has not succumbed to Chinese influence is a significant relief, highlighting the importance of regional dynamics.

The VVER-1200 reactor design from Russia is noted for its superior characteristics. Under the tripartite agreement , India's involvement as a mentor in this project is poised to enhance its image within Bangladesh, particularly in the context of the increasingly complex political discourse surrounding India-Bangladesh relations, which has recently been marred by anti-India sentiments. This cooperation is expected to bolster India's geopolitical influence and standing within the global nuclear community, while also providing valuable experience in international project management. Furthermore, it may pave the way for increased demand for Indian nuclear plant operators in other countries where Russia is establishing nuclear reactors, as India actively seeks to expand its investments in nuclear power globally.

The collaboration between the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Regulatory Board is set to formalize nuclear cooperation between the two countries. As part of this initiative, the upcoming visit of Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to New Delhi will provide an opportunity for both nations to discuss and outline a strategic roadmap for future collaboration in the nuclear sector. This partnership in nuclear energy is anticipated to become a cornerstone of the broader strategic relationship between India and Bangladesh, highlighting the importance of shared goals and mutual benefits in advancing their respective energy agendas.

(The writer is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst. )

Sadhguru Writes: What Gautama Buddha’s Path Really Teaches Us This Buddha Purnima

Sadhguru — Fri, 1 May 2026 09:55:40 +0530

Today, May 1, is Buddha Purnima. Although the term “Buddha” is usually synonymous with Gautama Buddha, there have been thousands of Buddhas on the planet and there still are.

The word “Buddha” literally means one who is above the intellect. Once you are above the intellect, you are beyond suffering. Buddha Purnima is a reminder that it is possible for every human being to go beyond suffering. You do not have to know any scriptures or sit on top of the Himalayas to get there. The only qualification is willingness. What is within you can never be denied to you; if you are willing, it is always available.

A Man Blossoms Into A Being

After almost eight years of body-breaking efforts, Gautama had become very weak. For four years, he had been a Samana. The main sadhana for a Samana was to walk and never seek food. Just walking and fasting. This destroyed his body almost to the point of death.

At this time, he came to the stream called Niranjana. He tried to cross the river, but half-way across, he was so weak that he could not take one more step. But he was not the kind to give up, so he held on to a dead branch and just stood there.

It is said that he stood like that for many hours. We do not know whether he actually stood for many hours, or for a few moments which seemed like hours in that state of weakness. But at that moment, he realized that if what he was seeking was, after all, within himself, then why all this struggle?

When he realized this, he got that little extra ounce of energy to take the next step, walk across the river and sit down under the now famous Bodhi tree. He sat down with the determination that, "Unless the Ultimate happens to me, I will not move. Either I will get up as an Enlightened Being or die in this posture." And in a moment, he attained because that is all it takes.

That full moon day is celebrated as Buddha Purnima. It reminds us that if it is the only priority in our lives, enlightenment can happen in a moment.

The Essence Of Buddha’s Way

There have been many spiritual masters in the history of humanity, but Gautama is one of the most celebrated. Unfortunately, the path that Gautama advocated has been misinterpreted over the years. Today, many consider it a path of desireless-ness, of contentment rather than courage. Contentment means containment. Why would anyone want to contain their life? Because they are afraid of it. This teaching of desireless-ness and detachment has come into vogue because people choose to involve themselves selectively with life. When you choose to involve yourself selectively, you naturally get entangled with life; this is normally referred to as attachment.

When people say, “Become detached,” it means their solution for life is, “Avoid it!” If you want to avoid life, it means death. Being alive and wanting to die but not dying, is torture. It is a half-life. People believe that involvement means getting hurt. It is not so. It is entanglement, or selective involvement, that causes pain and suffering.

When Gautama spoke of desireless-ness, he was speaking of using desire as a tool to go beyond the physical, towards your infinite nature. If the boundlessness of your desire finds expression in stages, it is a self-defeating process, because you cannot count to infinity. If you are looking for unlimited expansion, you are actually seeking spirituality. You are not willing to settle for a piece of creation; you want the creator himself. This is ultimate greed.

So, this Buddha Purnima, just desire the highest in life. Direct all your passions to the highest possibility that you can think of. Unleash your desire; do not limit it to the limited. In the boundlessness of desire is your ultimate nature.

OPINION | UAE Quitting OPEC May Not Be All Good News For India

Nayanima Basu — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:38:47 +0530

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has officially declared its decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, with the exit taking effect on May 1, 2026. By exiting OPEC, the UAE is no longer bound by production quotas and plans to increase output from 3 million to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. This increased supply creates downward pressure on global crude prices, directly lowering India's massive oil import costs. In terms of strategic goal, the UAE plans to ramp up its oil production to 5 million bpd by 2027 to monetise its reserves faster and fund its long-term economic diversification.

Interestingly enough, the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that the "policy decision" was made without consulting Saudi Arabia or other OPEC members. As the announcement came to light, oil prices initially dipped on news of a potential supply glut but rebounded as the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continued to risk premiums. In terms of supply constraints, the Strait of Hormuz crisis prevents the UAE from exporting at full capacity, meaning the practical impact of the exit will be more pronounced once shipping routes reopen.

UAE’s exit from OPEC has weakened the latter’s capacity to keep the prices of crude stabilised. The move is expected to also bring in structural weaknesses for OPEC as the oil cartels may get more fragmented even as other major oil producing countries such as Iran and Iraq can take a similar decision or increase prices of oil. The UAE's exit occurs against the backdrop of the US-Iran war and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. As the war in Iran began on 28 February, OPEC’s role had already been dwindling even as its share in global oil production was steadily plummeting. It is feared that after UAE, others like Saudi Arabia and Iran can also follow suit thereby changing the dynamics of the oil market completely changed.

Council on Foreign Relations notes in a report that the UAE’s decision to end a fifty-eight-years membership in the cartel is a reflection of an alliance that was strained by the pressures of regional war and fractured diplomacy. The Emirati government has long taken issue with the quotas and price controls instituted by the cartel, and so it views this as in its best interest. The UAE’s departure has raised some pointed concerns about OPEC’s long-term cohesion, but it remains to be seen whether this change will have a serious effect on the cartel, noted CFR.

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Coming to India, the larger commentary from experts had been that UAE’s exit from OPEC will translate into a substantial strategic victory for India, since it relies heavily on foreign oil, importing more than 85% of its crude oil needs. The UAE's departure from these oil-producing coalitions is anticipated to potentially reduce energy expenses for India and enhance the already growing bilateral relations between the two countries. This is also expected to lower India’s oil import bill on the long-term as increased supplies from UAE is expected to exert downward pressure on global crude prices, benefitting India, which imports over 85% of its oil. Analysts also suggest that New Delhi will now be able to negotiate independent, long-term supply agreements with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) without cartel interference. This is also an opportunity for India to further the oil-for-rupee trade settlement program, supporting India's de-dollarisation efforts.

However, all these depend on how UAE plans to play the oil game because it entails several risks and challenges that could negatively impact the Indian economy. The primary risk is a lack of price stability. OPEC has historically functioned as a "swing producer" that stabilizes prices by managing supply. Without a unified cartel to smooth out imbalances, oil prices could become more susceptible to rapid, extreme spikes during geopolitical crises, making energy budgeting difficult for India. A structurally weaker OPEC may find it harder to calibrate supply, leading to a fragmented landscape where prices are driven by chaotic market forces rather than coordinated discipline.

A sustained decline in global oil prices—caused by the UAE ramping up its production to 5 million barrels per day—is not universally good for Indian companies. Indian upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India, which explore and produce oil domestically, see their revenues directly tied to global crude prices. Lower prices could significantly squeeze their profitability and valuations. Besides, due to exchange rate uncertainty, sharp movements in crude prices can lead to sudden shifts in demand for US dollars, causing the Indian Rupee to fluctuate unexpectedly, which complicates planning for Indian exporters and importers alike. Also, if the government chooses to intervene to protect consumers from price spikes, it could result in a heavier subsidy bill or financial hits to state-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). Therefore, while India has welcomed the decision taken by the UAE with optimism, it needs to take a cautious approach as the oil market dynamics are poised to undergo a paradigm shift for the world.

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Nayanima Basu is a senior independent journalist.

OPINION | Women, Muslims, Migrants And EC: What Will Tilt Bengal’s Historic Verdict

Sayantan Ghosh — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:41:17 +0530

The second phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on April 29 amid unprecedented intensity. Record voter turnout, reaching nearly 92 per cent in the first phase and similarly high in the second, marked one of the most fiercely contested polls in recent Indian history. This battle pits Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led nationally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. For Banerjee, it is a fight for survival and a potential fourth term as Chief Minister. For the BJP, it represents a high-stakes push to dislodge the TMC in a state lacking a dominant local face, relying instead on Modi’s charisma and Shah’s strategy.

The election transcends routine politics, involving legal skirmishes over voter lists, administrative deployments by the Election Commission, psychological narratives of development versus victimhood, and on-ground mobilisation. Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls removed around 91 lakh names, shrinking the electorate by about 12 per cent from earlier figures. This process, combined with massive central force deployment, fueled accusations of targeting and counter-claims of cleaning bogus entries.

Whatever the outcome on May 4, this verdict will reshape West Bengal’s political landscape permanently, altering alliances, minority strategies, and the balance between welfare populism and majoritarian appeals. Four key factors will likely decide the result.

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Muslim Voting Patterns

Muslims constitute roughly 27-33 per cent of West Bengal’s population, exerting decisive influence in 100-110 assembly seats, particularly in districts like Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Birbhum, and parts of the 24 Parganas. Historically, they have formed a loyal base for the TMC, delivering strong consolidation in 2021 when the party swept most Muslim-dominated constituencies.

The SIR process intensified scrutiny here. Reports indicate disproportionate deletions in Muslim-heavy areas, with communities alleging harassment and genuine voters struck off due to documentation issues, name changes, or perceived “logical discrepancies.” In some analyses, deletions hit Muslim voters harder in key pockets, though overall figures show a mix across communities. If Muslim votes consolidate firmly behind the TMC, it could secure over 100 seats for Banerjee’s party, creating a formidable barrier for the BJP. Conversely, any split, towards the Left-ISF alliance, Congress, or smaller players like Humayun Kabir’s Janata Dal (United) faction, could erode TMC margins in tight contests. The BJP hopes fragmentation or lower enthusiasm among Muslims, amid narratives of infiltration and governance failures, will open doors. This bloc’s behaviour remains the single biggest variable.

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Women’s Electoral Shift

Women have been a cornerstone of TMC support since Banerjee became Chief Minister in 2011. Schemes like Kanyashree (for girl child education and delaying marriage), Lakshmir Bhandar (monthly cash transfers of Rs 1,500-1,700 to adult women), Rupashree (marriage assistance), and others created direct beneficiary links across religions. These programs empowered rural and lower-income women, translating into consistent votes for the incumbent.

This election tests that loyalty. Exit trends and ground reports suggest women faced significant SIR-related challenges, including post-marriage name and surname discrepancies leading to deletions, second only to Muslim voters in impact. If women maintain their preference for TMC welfare delivery, Banerjee retains power. A shift toward the BJP, driven by promises of better security, jobs, or higher cash incentives, would signal a national pattern break. Unlike cases where incumbents retained women’s support through benefits (as with Nitish Kumar in earlier cycles), Bengal could witness realignment if safety concerns or anti-incumbency override cash transfers. This gender dynamic carries implications far beyond the state.

ALSO READ: OPINION | War, Welfare, And Ballot: How A Distant Conflict Is Rewriting India’s Electoral Playbook

Migrant Workers’ Participation

Migrant labourers and workers, from daily-wage earners to white-collar professionals, emerged as a surprise force. Over 29 lakh migrants reportedly returned home across phases, contributing to a record turnout. Political parties, including TMC and BJP, mobilised transport and logistics to ferry them back. Many cited fears of permanent exclusion via SIR as motivation.

These voters, often absent in routine elections, represent lower-economic and aspirational segments exposed to development models outside Bengal. A surge favouring the BJP would indicate dissatisfaction with local governance, job scarcity, and repeated climate-induced migration from areas like the Sundarbans. Conversely, continued TMC support among returnees would underscore the pull of welfare safety nets and familiarity. The sheer volume of this “homecoming vote” amplified turnout percentages on a trimmed roll, making it a decisive swing element in marginal seats.

Impact of SIR and EC’s Role

The SIR was more than administrative; it became a battlefield. Nearly 91 lakh deletions (from deaths, duplicates, shifts, and adjudication) reduced the electorate significantly, with the highest numbers in districts like Murshidabad. The Election Commission deployed massive central forces and faced accusations of selective targeting and narrative-building around violence and irregularities in TMC-ruled Bengal.

On-ground emotions run deep. Genuine grievances over deletions, harassment during verification, and family members losing voting rights created resentment. If this fuels an anti-EC, anti-BJP consolidation, it benefits Mamata Banerjee’s “Save Bengal” pitch. If voters view SIR as a necessary cleansing of inflated rolls, potentially aiding cleaner outcomes, it tilts toward the BJP. The Commission’s credibility and perceived impartiality will echo in results, especially where deletions were high.

These four factors interplay in complex ways. Record turnout reflects heightened stakes and mobilisation, yet on a revised roll that altered demographics. Banerjee’s TMC banks on minority and women consolidation plus incumbency welfare. Modi and Shah’s BJP bets on anti-incumbency, development promises, and SIR’s numerical edge. The final verdict on May 4 will not just pick a winner but redefine how identity, welfare, migration, and institutional trust shape Indian state politics for years ahead.

Sayantan Ghosh teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata. He is on X as @sayantan_gh.